Philadelphia Eagles (5-3) at San Diego Chargers (5-3)
Date: Sunday, November 15th
Time: 4:15PM ET
TV: FOX
Line: SD-1
Total: 47
Eagles ATS Record: 5-3
Chargers ATS Record: 3-5
San Diego and Philadelphia may have the same record, but have taken much different paths to their current standing. San Diego as usual got off to a slow start, but has won 3 straight including last week vs. the Giants. The Eagles are coming off a flat performance Sunday night vs. Dallas. It will be interesting to see which Eagles team shows up against the very confident Chargers.
Quarterbacks: There is no other way to put it; San Diego is a passing team. With LaDanian Tomlinson a shell of his former self, the Chargers will go as far as Philip Rivers can take them. Rivers has been very good coming into the game with a QB rating of 95 and 14 Touchdowns. Rivers understands that he needs to be the man and he loves it. He will do what he has the last 3 weeks; focus on WR Vincent Jackson and TE Antonio Gates, with a bit of Tomlinson out of the backfield. Gates should be the main target.
FF: In his past 5 vs. the NFC Rivers has 13 TD’s only 3 INT’s and a QB rating of 104.
Even with an off night against the Cowboys, Donovan McNabb is having a good year for Andy Reid’s Eagles throwing 10 Touchdown passes to only 3 interceptions. McNabb should see his workload lightened with the return of Brian Westbrook. We have watched San Diego all year, and the biggest flaw on the defense is their inability to cover the TE. McNabb should exploit this all day. Look for a steady stream of passes to leading receiver Brent Celek who leads the Eagles with 40 catches. If you are an Eagles fan, we love the matchup of Celek vs. rookie SS Kevin Ellison.
FF: McNabb is 2-0 vs. San Diego in his career.
Running Backs: LaDanian Tomlinson is no longer a factor in games, and it will be interesting to see how Norv Turner addresses the problem with his run game. Tomlinson, who used to do so many things so well, now can’t even run with the zip that Charger fans are used to. He has been tackled 3 times in one on one matchups with DBs (something you never saw 2 years ago) and is no longer a sure thing at the goal line. Tomlinson comes into the game averaging just over 3 yards a carry. He will get his touches, but sadly we would be shocked if he was able to make any kind of impact play. Turner doesn’t know what he wants to do with Darren Sproles who is still a factor on special teams, but has been limited out of the backfield.
FF: Since 2000 Tomlinson has 10 100+YD inter-conference games. (2nd most in NFL)
We thought we may see Brian Westbrook on the field against the Cowboys, but shocking he was still hurt. We don’t mean to pound on Westbrook who maybe one of the nicer guys in the league, but has the durability of a Kicker. We have been promised that he will be back on the field against San Diego, but we expect rookie LeSean McCoy to be the feature back, with a dose of Westbrook and fullback Leonard Weaver. San Diego has had trouble stopping the run, and McCoy has been impressive averaging more than 4 yards per carry. There are many questions about San Diego’s Defensive Line, so look for Reid to keep the ball in McCoy and Westbrook’s hands to control the clock, and to keep Rivers off the field.
FF: McCoy has scored in 2 straight.
Wide Receivers: Vincent Jackson has become one of the top Wide Receivers in the league with his great combination of speed, size, and ability to catch the ball. Jackson comes into the game with 7 touchdowns, and there is no question he is Rivers go to guy. He will draw his toughest assignment of the year in Asante Samuel, but we still like Jackson to put up his numbers. Antonio Gates looks like he is headed back to the Pro Bowl. Gates who has battled injuries the last 2 seasons has 42 catches and 2 touchdowns. Rivers will look for him on 3rd down, and also in the red zone.
FF: Jackson has scored in 4 straight.
We have already talked about Brent Celek, but a key decision for Chargers Defensive Coordinator Ron Rivera, is which DB to put on DeSean Jackson. Our guess would be Quentin Jammer, but we don’t know if Jammer can stay with the speedy Jackson. If Rivera goes with Antonio Cromartie, we love the matchup for Jackson. Cromartie is one of the fastest guys in the league, but no longer hits, trying to arm tackle instead. That won’t work against Jackson, and could make for a long day for Cromartie and Rivera.
FF: Jackson has 4+ catches in all 6 games vs. the AFC
Defense: San Diego has been impressive rushing the passer during their win streak, and we look for more of the same against the Eagles. Shaun Phillips and Shawne Merriman lead the way with a combined 9 sacks. They will have to rattle McNabb and keep him on the run to take away Jackson. We still don’t see anyone but rookie SS Kevin Ellison to cover Brent Celek who we believe could be the difference in the game.
FF: SD is 4-0 at home against the Eagles
The Eagles know San Diego can’t run the ball, and they also know Rivers isn’t the most mobile QB in the league. With Samuel on Vincent Jackson, and not scared by Malcolm Floyd, Rivers will see as many different blitz packages as he has all year. Jason Babin has had a sack in 3 straight, and Trent Cole comes into the game with 7.5. San Diego’s o-line has struggled in run blocking, but has been ok keeping Rivers upright. That must continue against a fast Eagles D if San Diego hopes to make it 4 straight.
FF: This is the Eagles first road game of the year against a team with a winning record.
Injuries:
SD: Nick Hardwick-C/ankle (out) Tim Dobbins-LB/knee (doubtful)
PHI: Kevin Curtis-WR/knee (out) Akeem Jordan-LB/knee (out)
Betting Trends:
The Eagles are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games
The Eagles are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games
The Chargers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as the FAVORITE
The OVER is 7-2 in the Eagles last 9 games
The UNDER is 7-3-1 in the Chargers last 11 home games