Betting Recap - Week 11
November 12, 2017
By Daniel Dobish
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Against the Spread
Against the Spread
The largest underdogs to win straight up
South Alabama (+12.5, ML +400) vs. Arkansas State, 24-19
North Carolina (+10, ML +290) at Pittsburgh, 34-31
Old Dominion (+10, ML +300) at Florida International, 37-30
Alabama-Birmingham (+7, ML +210) at Texas-San Antonio, 24-19
Stanford (+7, ML +225) vs. Washington, 30-22
The largest favorites to cover
Northern Illinois (-29) vs. Ball State, 63-17
North Texas (-24) vs. Texas-El Paso, 45-10
Mississippi (-23.5) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, 50-22
Western Michigan (-20.5) vs. Kent State, 48-20
Louisiana State (-19) vs. Arkansas, 33-10
Top 25 Notes
-- Georgia-Auburn was one of the marquee games of the weekend, but it didn't exactly turn out like many had thought. The Bulldogs, No. 1 in the College Football Playoff standings last Tuesday, led at Jordan-Hare Stadium by a 7-6 score after the first quarter. Then, everything went downhill. The Tigers took a 16-7 lead at halftime, but there was still time. However, at the end of three quarters, Auburn held a 30-10 lead and that's when the drama ended. The Tigers improved to 3-0 ATS over their past three, and 5-1-1 ATS over the past seven. They will host Louisiana-Monroe in non-conference action before the Iron Bowl against Alabama. ... As far as the Tide is concerned, they had their hands full at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs held a 21-17 lead after three quarters, and the game was tied 24-24 in the final minute. But unlike UGA, 'Bama showed off their championship pedigree and found a way to win.
-- Miami-Florida hasn't faced an important game at home like Saturday night against Notre Dame in perhaps 15 years or more. But the fans put the 'rock' in Hard Rock Stadium, a rare sold out crowd for the Hurricanes. The home team responded with an impressive 14-0 lead after the first quarter, and a 27-0 halftime lead. The Irish never showed up for the No. 5 vs. No. 6 matchup, as the Hurricanes appear primed and ready for a spot in the Top 4 of the CFP rankings.
-- Oklahoma pushed aside Texas Christian by a 38-20 score, ending the national championship aspirations of the Horned Frogs in Norman. In this game, 'over' (63.5) bettors couldn't believe their misfortune (see bad beats below). The Sooners improved to 3-0 ATS over their past three outings. The 'under' result for TCU was the sixth straight overall.
-- Southern California topped Colorado by a 38-24 score in Boulder. How about Vegas setting the lineup perfectly for this game? USC was favored by 14 with a total of 62. When the dust settled at Folsom Field, it was the Trojans coming out on top by 14, and both the line and the total ended up as a push.
-- Clemson picked up a 31-14 win at home against Florida State, clinching the Atlantic Division in the process. That sets up a Dec. 2 showdown with Miami in the ACC Championship Game. This game featured a couple of bad beats in the final minute, too (see below).
Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
-- After a couple of tough losses, North Carolina State hit the road for a difficult game at Boston College. The Wolfpack and Eagles both looked like bowl teams in this defensive battle, with the Wolfpack rattled off a 50-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter to steal a 17-14 win. The 'under' is now 6-1 over the past seven for NCSU. ... Wake Forest posted huge numbers in their win at Syracuse, winning 64-43. The Demon Deacons improved to 3-0 ATS over the past three, and 7-2-1 ATS overall. The 'over' has cashed in four in a row for Wake, too.
-- Wisconsin steamrolled Iowa by a 38-14 score to earn the cover and stay unbeatean on the season. The Badgers improved to 10-0 SU, but Saturday marked the first time all season that they have covered in consecutive games. ... Ohio State bounced back after their embarrassing loss at Iowa City last week, routing Michigan State by a 48-3 score at Ohio Stadium to take control of the East Division in the Big Ten. The 'under' result was the first for OSU in seven games dating back to Sept. 16. ... Minnesota posted a 54-21 win against Nebraska, snapping a two-game losing streak. The Gophers evened up at 5-5 and have a road game at Northwestern and home game against Wisconsin to try and become bowl eligible.
-- Oklahoma State and Iowa State played one of the most exciting games of the day in Ames, as the Cowboys and Cyclones combined for 91 points. It took an interception in the end zone by the Cowboys to dash the comeback hopes of the Cyclones, 49-42. The 'over' has hit in a season-high three in a row for OK State. ... West Virginia picked up an impressive 28-23 win at Kansas State, moving to 7-3 SU, but it was their first cover in four games dating back to Oct. 14. ... It was a rare 'over' result for Kansas, who slipped up 42-27 at Texas. The 27 points were the most for the Jayhawks since they posted 34 in a game on Sept. 23 against West Virginia.
-- Arizona got back on track with a 49-28 win against Oregon State, improving to 6-4 ATS overall and 3-0 ATS across their past three at home. The 'over' has come through in six straight for the Wildcats. ... Washington State had a tough challenge at Utah, but they were able to hold off the Utes by a 33-25 score. The Cougars improved to 7-2 ATS over the past nine outings. ... It was a rare 'over' result on Friday night for Stanford, as they effectively ended the playoff chances of Washington by a 30-22 count. The last over for the Cardinal came way back on Sept. 23.
-- The freefall for Florida continued, as they lost to old pal Will Muschamp and South Carolina. The Gators started out 3-1 SU, but probably could have lost games to Tennessee, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Remember those early-season, late-game heroics? Well, the Gators are 0-5 SU over their past five, and 0-4 ATS across the past four, and 3-6 SU and just two games to go, they have no chance at a bowl game. Meanwhile, South Carolina improved to 4-0-1 ATS over the past five outings. ... Louisiana State picked up a 33-10 win against Arkansas, improving to 4-0 ATS over the past four games after opening 1-4-1 ATS in their first six.
-- In the AAC, UCF remained unbeaten with a 49-24 win against Connecticut. The Golden Knights were unable to cover for the third straight outing after opening the season 5-0-1 ATS in their first six. ... Navy put an end to their three-game losing skid, outlasting Southern Methodist by a 43-40 score. It was the first cover for the Midshipmen since Sept. 30 against Tulsa. ... Tulane survived at East Carolina, 31-24 in overtime, to pick up their fourth win in 10 games. The Green Wave still has a chance at bowl eligibility, but they need to win their two remaining games against Houston and at SMU.
-- Florida Atlantic keeps moving through unchartered territory. They improved to 6-0 in Conference USA play with a 48-23 win at Louisiana Tech. The Owls opened the season 1-3 SU, but they have won six in a row and they're 5-1 ATS during the span. ... Alabama-Birmingham kept up their impressive play, winning outright against Texas-San Antonio despite entering as eight-point underdogs on the road. UAB has won three in a row, and five of the past six, while improving to 7-1 ATS over their past eight. They step out of conference for a trip to Florida next weekend.
-- Hawaii was unable to come back and top Fresno State, slipping up 31-21. It was the fifth consecutive 'under' for the Rainbow Warriors, who also slipped to 0-8 ATS dating back to Sept. 2. ... Nevada will not be bowling this December, and bettors will be sad to see them go. The Wolf Pack improved to 4-1 ATS over their past five games following a 59-14 thumping of San Jose State. ... Wyoming posted a 28-14 win at Air Force, their seventh consecutive cover and fourth straight 'under' result.
-- South Alabama picked up the 24-19 win against Arkansas State, the biggest underdog to win outright (+12.5). The 'under' continues to be a popular play for USA, hitting in three in a row and eight of the past nine. ... Georgia Southern slipped to 0-9 SU with a 27-6 loss at Appalachian State. The Eagles also slipped to 2-6-1 ATS overall.
-- The TCU-Oklahoma game had a total of 63.5. Things were looking great for 'over' bettors at halftime, with the Sooners leading 38-14. However, the entire third quarter was scoreless and there was just six total points in the fourt quarter for the shocking 'under' result.
-- If you had Florida State (+16.5) and the 'under' (44.5), you were likely left saying bad words at the end of their game at Clemson. Other total bettors had to settle for pushes on both ends after it appeared a win was surely in the bag. The Tigers punched in a touchdown with 3:05 to go, taking a 24-14 lead. That looked like it might be the final margin, but Clemson ended up posting another rushing touchdown with just :35 remaining for the awful bad beat on both the total and the line.
-- Like the TCU-Oklahoma game, Michigan State-Ohio State appeared headed for an 'over' (56.5) result. The Buckeyes led 35-3 at halftime, and 48-3 after three quarters. However, neither Sparty nor the Buckeyes were able to tack on any points in the final quarter, resulting in a stunning 'under' result.
-- LSU was laying a big number (+18.5), but it didn't appear they were going to cover until the Tigers posted a score with 3:46 to go, taking a 33-10 lead on Arkansas.
-- For the second straight week it was FAU involved in a bad beat in the final minute. The total was 68, and the Owls had the ball and a 42-23 lead. With :37 left in regulation the Owls punched in a 3-yard touchdown to take a 48-23 lead and a miraculous 'over' result for some, and a sickening 'under' loss for others.
9-0 L9, 15-2 Run, 20-4 L10 Sat.
5-0 Sat, 19-8 L4 Saturdays, +1,285 TY
9-2 L11 G-Plays, 14-6 L20 Picks
8-1 Saturday, 10-2 L12 Over/Unders
5-2 Sat, 51-26 L10 Sat, +1,635 TY
12-4 L2 Sat., 14-6 Run, 7-3 G-Plays
18-7 L25 G-Plays, 13-4 Thursdays TY
13-7 L3 Weeks, 8-3 L11 G-Plays
3-1 G-Plays, 10-6 L2 Sat, 14-7 Run
60%, +1,371 CFB This Season
21-10 Run, 26-11 L8 Saturdays
4-0 Fri, 25-13 Run, 27-11 G-Plays
12-6 L18 G-Plays, +1,242 TY
3-1 Saturday, 4-1 L5 Guarantees
8-4 G-Plays, 21-12 Run, +1,020 TY
10-5 Saturday, 32-15 L47 Totals
5-2 Last Week, 12-4 L16 G-Plays
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