Tuesday's Best Bet
November 14, 2017
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Tuesday MACtion Best Bet (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Central Michigan vs. Kent State
With a big 42-30 win over Eastern Michigan a week ago, the Central Michigan Chippewas were able to accomplish one of their season-long goals this year by becoming Bowl eligible.
At 6-4 straight up it's likely we see Central Michigan in a Bowl game somewhere next month, but with two games left and no real shot at a MAC West division crown, all that's left for the Chippewas is to improve on that record they've got and try to get themselves in as late of a Bowl game as possible.
Bookmaker.eu Odds: Central Michigan (-17.5); Total set at 47
The odds of the Chippewas improving on their W/L record tonight are pretty good as 17-point road favorites at Akron, especially with the way Central Michigan's offense has been scoring of late. The Chippewas are 3-0 SU and ATS over their last three weeks and it's because they've scored at least 35 points in all three of those games. Scores of 56, 35, and 42 points respectively have enabled the Chippewas to bounce back from a rough start early on to become Bowl eligible, and chances are they won't be taking this 2-8 SU Kent State team lightly tonight. Kent State wasn't good a year ago either, but the Golden Flashes went into Central Michigan last year as 12.5-point underdogs and won the game outright 27-24.
Yet, even with Central Michigan unlikely to take this poor opponent lightly for a variety of reasons, I wouldn't be in a rush to step out and lay that kind of chalk on the road. For one, motivation to get Bowl eligible has waned somewhat now that they've got six wins, and aside from improving their Bowl position, there really isn't a whole lot to play for from a Central Michigan perspective. At least not enough to go out and blow out a bad team like Kent State by 3+ scores on the road.
VegasInsider.com shows more than 80% of the action on this side coming in on the favorite tonight but the line hasn't moved which is always a worrisome notion.
However, tonight's total has moved after opening up at 46.5 and that's with about 60% of the action going low on this number. I've already touched on Central Michigan's offensive run of hot play and putting up big scoring numbers, but Kent State's defense should provide little resistance as well having allowed 40+ in their last three games.
That combination has both teams tonight riding 3-0 O/U streaks entering play this evening, and it's tough not to think this game won't have quite a few points scored as well.
For one, highly motivated or not, Central Michigan will likely be able to score 30+ tonight fairly easily. The revenge angle they've got after losing as big home favorites a year ago lends itself to the Chippewas wanting to put up an ugly number on their rivals tonight, but that game a year ago also suggests that Kent State should be able to score their fair share of points in this one. The Golden Flashes have scored at least 13 points in every home game so far this year, so if they can bump that number up just a touch tonight, there are our 47 points.
Central Michigan's waning motivation should help Kent State's offense put up solid offensive numbers, and with Kent State 5-1 O/U in their last six against a team with a winning record, and 5-1 O/U after allowing 40+, I've got no problem expecting a lot of points tonight. Central Michigan is 6-2 O/U themselves against a losing team, and with each of the last four games in this rivalry going 'over' the total, that's where my money is tonight.
Odds per - Bookmaker.eu
Best Bet: Over 47 points
9-0 L9, 15-2 Run, 20-4 L10 Sat.
5-0 Sat, 19-8 L4 Saturdays, +1,285 TY
9-2 L11 G-Plays, 14-6 L20 Picks
8-1 Saturday, 10-2 L12 Over/Unders
5-2 Sat, 51-26 L10 Sat, +1,635 TY
12-4 L2 Sat., 14-6 Run, 7-3 G-Plays
18-7 L25 G-Plays, 13-4 Thursdays TY
13-7 L3 Weeks, 8-3 L11 G-Plays
3-1 G-Plays, 10-6 L2 Sat, 14-7 Run
60%, +1,371 CFB This Season
21-10 Run, 26-11 L8 Saturdays
4-0 Fri, 25-13 Run, 27-11 G-Plays
12-6 L18 G-Plays, +1,242 TY
3-1 Saturday, 4-1 L5 Guarantees
8-4 G-Plays, 21-12 Run, +1,020 TY
10-5 Saturday, 32-15 L47 Totals
5-2 Last Week, 12-4 L16 G-Plays
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