The Hokies losing the final seconds to North Carolina on Oct. 29 was just a precursor to what we were going to see as Week 9 of the college football season played out. Iowa had to make another fourth quarter comeback to upend the Hoosiers. Then we saw the Trojans publicly relinquish their stranglehold on the Pac-10 with a loss at Oregon.
Those three contests are going to help us find a few teams that will no doubt be in a funk from bad outings.
Hokie Hokie low…
Virginia Tech appeared to be at least taking its chances in overtime with the Tar Heels when they got the ball with just three minutes left in regulation of a 17-17 ballgame. But Ryan Williams’ fumble on the Hokies’ 30-yard line took the wind out of their sails as they fell 20-17 to North Carolina.
Now the Hokies are hoping to bounce back this week against East Carolina in another Thursday battle. The sportsbooks aren’t really worried about Frank Beamer’s crew as they’ve made them nine-point road favorites.
What keeps me from looking at Virginia Tech as a reasonable play here is the last two drives the Tar Heels had to win the game. The Hokies allowed UNC to march 78 yards down the field to tie the score at 17, stopping just two of the five third-down conversions. Then the Heels drove all the way down to Virginia Tech’s four-yard line for the game winner.
That kind of defensive play will not help out too much when they play the Pirates, who are actually averaging more yards per game on the ground (149.4) than what the Tar Heels have this year (135.4).
Something else to consider is that ECU has covered the spread the last two times as a nine-point and 27 ½-point underdog. Also, the Pirates have gone 3-1 run against the spread in their last four matches. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, is on a 1-3 ATS skid.
It’s hard to be a Hoosier…
The Hoosiers looked like they were going to pull off a major upset last week when they took a 24-14 lead into the fourth quarter against Iowa. Yet Indiana found a way to let the Hawkeyes tally four touchdowns in the final quarter to walk away with a 42-24 win as 17 ½-point home faves.
Indiana finds itself in the same spot as they did after falling to the Wolverines in Ann Arbor back in late September – double-digit pup to a Big Ten foe. This time the Hoosiers are 11-point home ‘dogs to Wisconsin.
There is reason to see the Badgers covering that spread with ease in Bloomington. Scott Tolzien is one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the country with a 130.6 rating. He’s going to be facing off against an Indiana pass defense that ranks 107th nationally, allowing 256.7 YPG through the air.
Wisky has fared well at the betting shops in this series recently, covering the number in the last three meetings and five of the previous eight.
“V” is for “Vanished…”
It took seven years, but Pete Carroll’s grip on the Pac-10 has finally loosened after Southern California’s 47-20 defeat in Eugene to the Ducks. The Trojans allowed 613 yards to Oregon in what was easily the worst loss of Carroll’s tenure in Los Angeles.
The Trojans may feel shell shocked after last Saturday’s result, but the sportsbooks are still listing them as 14-point road favorites against Arizona State.
This might be sound like a stretch given how the Sun Devils have lost two straight games in what has been a mediocre season for Dennis Erickson’s program. However, ASU is coming off of a tough 23-21 loss to the Golden Bears last Saturday.
Arizona State didn’t have much success on the ground last week with just 82 yards rushing against the Golden Bears. They did, however, put up 247 yards via the air. That might prove fruitful for the Devs here since USC gave up 222 passing yards to the Ducks. Not big numbers, but this defense was exposed as not being as good as we thought after getting taken down by a real offense.
I’ll be the first to say that the Sun Devils aren’t the best attacking unit out there, but they do average 354.7 YPG this season. Plus, they’ve gone 3-1 ATS over the last four games with Southern Cal.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
