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Posted 08/07/2007 at 08:55 PM
I wanted to take a look at the first week of the 2006 Preseason games (including the Hall of Fame game) to see if there would be anything interesting to grab from these match-ups.
Week 1 is notoriously know for giving “starters” or veterans’ a series or 2 then getting them out of the game as fast as possible so that these players do not sustain injury. Frequently, the 4th quarter consists of player that will never make the team and will most likely to be cut in a few weeks. In some cases, a player who was drafted high in a skill position like QB might get allot of reps, or a QB that backed up the starter last season might see allot of time creating an advantage.
The key is to find teams that will be motivated to actually go out and “want” to get a win. These teams usually have a brand new head coach, or are looking to erase a nightmare of a season the year before. Regardless, these coaches want to set the table for a winning season. By winning the first game this will set a positive tone for the rest of the preseason and give his team some confidence that they can build upon.
New coaches in 2006 were:
Bills – Dick Jauron
Lions - Rod Marinelli
Packers - Mike McCarthy
Texans – Gary Kubiak
Chiefs – Herm Edwards
Vikings – Brad Childress
Saints - Sean Payton
NY Jets - Eric Mangini
Raiders – Art Shell
Rams – Scott Linehan
These coaches went 4-3 straight up and 4-3 ATS in their week 1 preseason games. In the 7 games the total went UNDER 5 of the 7 meetings. The only over was the only meeting of two first time coaches, when Houston defeated K.C. 24-14. This year two new coaches face each other in week 1 of the preseason when Lane Kiflen faces Ken Whisenhunt.
Over all number for week1one preseaon games (inculding HOF) shape up such.
The favorites cover 7 times, dog's cashed 9 with 1 push
Unders cashed 12 times, with 4 overs and 1 push.
These numbers suggest leaning UNDER when looking at you're week 1 wagers.
The class of 2007 has 7 new coaches:
Cardinals - Ken Whisenhunt
Chargers - Norv Turner
Cowboys - Wade Phillips
Dolphins - Cam Cameron
Falcons - Bobby Petrino
Raiders - Lane Kiffin
Steelers - Mike Tomlin
It’s also important to read the local papers; with the internet this isn’t very hard. Read quotes from the coaches, they are much more revealing about their game plans in these “practice” games.
A perfect example is how the Saints performed on Sunday night in the Hall of Fame game, head coach Sean Payton is firing up the troops; “There is no other way to spin this, we were sloppy and sluggish" and, "We have to get better in all three phases of the game: offense, defense and special teams."
The Saints have a perfect opportunity to redeem themselves, with a Friday night nationally televised game against Buffalo . I believe a different Saint’s team will show up this time. The saints are currently a 5 point favorite, lay the points and take the home team, they will be motivated.
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