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Joe Nelson - About Me

Joe Nelson has been a regular on the Vegas Insider leader board since 2006. Well known for producing the Nelly’s Sportsline Green Sheet football newsletter, Nelson provides his very best picks to Vegas Insider clients.
 
The 2013-14 football season was especially profitable for Nelson, finishing as the Vegas Insider win percentage leader in BOTH the NFL and college football at 60%, finishing as the money leader in the NFL and #2 in money earned in college football amongst the deep and excellent field of handicappers at Vegas Insider. Few handicappers have ever been able to put together such strong finishes in both disciplines in the same season.
 
Nelson has also produced strong seasons in basketball and baseball in addition to the success in football as a long list of documented top finishes on Vegas Insider indicates. Nelson was also the champion of the prestigious Wise Guys Football Contest in 2011, besting a field of 72 national handicappers and then went on to finish 2nd in the same contest in 2012 for impressive back-to-back finishes.
 
With a statistics background and years of experience working with several established handicappers as well as over a decade as a professional handicapper, Nelson provides a unique approach with traditional methods as well as innovative strategies. Nelson’s handicapping focuses on team situations, schedule analysis, and line evaluation as well as following a variety of statistical indicators that are incorporated into the process.
 
You can find regular blog posts and articles for insight and commentary throughout the year and be sure to consider getting on board for a successful season.

EXPERT DAILY PICKS NOW
2 Pick mlb Daily Picks, Tuesday October 17
1 Pick nba Daily Picks, Tuesday October 17
NEW BLOG UPDATE

By Joe Nelson
Posted 10/16/2017 at 04:37 PM

The college football schedule looked rather unappealing on the national stage last week with no head-to-head matchups between top 25 teams and most of the big TV games featuring massive spreads. College Game Day even opted to go to the FCS level for the Villanova/James Madison game. Things got off to a wild start Friday night with a pair of top 10 upsets including Syracuse upsetting #2 Clemson, the defending national champions. California delivered a blowout of Washington State to complete the Friday the 13th upset pair. Two more top 10 squads fell on Saturday with Washington and Auburn dropping division road games for a huge shake-up in the national picture and now only six undefeated power 5 teams remain.
 
If the remaining six teams all went undefeated in the regular season the SEC and B10 championship games would bounce two of the squads as there is a current path for the College Football Playoff to feature four 13-0 major conference champions. In that scenario the Pac-12 is the odd conference out. USC has a chance to emerge as the top 12-1 squad if they win out the rest of the way with a big non-conference game with Notre Dame to boost the resume. Washington and Washington State now both have steep uphill battles to even re-join the playoff conversation with the weak non-conference slate for the Huskies and a 37-3 loss pretty hard to overlook for the Cougars.
 
TCU can be the savior for the Big XII but the Frogs will have to win in Norman on November 11. The Big XII championship game will be in a favorable Arlington venue for TCU but they also have road games in Ames and Lubbock to also worry about plus a home date with Texas before even thinking about having to beat the #2 Big XII team for a second time in the same season.
 
Penn State is the #2 team in the nation for the moment but it will be a major surprise if the Lions hold that ground through the upcoming gauntlet of Michigan, at Ohio State, and at Michigan State the next three weeks. Penn State has played a very weak schedule in the 6-0 start and struggled production-wise in several of those games as this very well could be the most overrated team in the nation and a team that is very unlikely to be again playing in the B10 championship. Wisconsin’s resume can similarly be criticized but the Badgers look likely to be a double-digit favorite in every game until they almost certainly head to Indianapolis as the B10 West champions. Wisconsin is likely to be an underdog in that game especially if they draw Ohio State but they’ll only need to deliver one big win, while obviously avoiding an upset down the stretch with some more challenging contests ahead in November.
 
Georgia finally looks like a team that can provide the SEC East with a worthy contender for the SEC title, now 7-0. Games with Florida, Auburn, and Georgia Tech are all away from home before a potential showdown with Alabama in the SEC title game. If both teams enter that game 12-0 there is a good chance both teams will make the College Football Playoff regardless of the result as Georgia’s resume with wins at Notre Dame and potentially at Georgia Tech would make for a strong overall body of work and as usual Alabama would climb to the top of the one-loss pile.
 
Injuries were the big storyline on Sunday with three teams losing starting quarterbacks mid-game. The most significant of those injuries came to Aaron Rodgers with the Packers a team on the shortlist of Super Bowl contenders. The Packers are already 4-2 and 9-7 might be good enough to win the NFC North. The schedule ahead is reasonable as if Brett Hundley can lead .500 play and Rodgers can return in by Week 15 Green Bay could still be a threat for a great postseason run. The Vikings have their own quarterback issues and a much tougher remaining schedule as the current leader and chief contender in the division race.
 
Two double-digit underdogs won outright in the NFL last week and blindly betting the underdog would have made you 11-2 so far in Week 6 (and 52-36-1 on the season) heading into Monday night. Best of Luck and on to this week’s slate…

FULL STORY

NEW BLOG UPDATE

By Joe Nelson
Posted 10/09/2017 at 06:03 PM

There have been bigger upsets by the pointspread but Iowa State’s win at Oklahoma last weekend was certainly one of the most stunning upsets in recent history. It was the first upset by an underdog of 30 or more points in matchup of FBS teams since New Mexico beat Boise State in 2015, which was the first since a pair of games in 2012. None of those games featured an undefeated national title contender that was ranked #3 in the nation however as the Cyclones made a huge national splash. That Iowa State did it with starting quarterback Jacob Park stepping away from the team is even more remarkable as senior Kyle Kempt delivered an incredible performance. The challenge for the Cyclones now is taking care of business this week against Kansas and keeping alive hopes of getting back to a bowl game for the first time since 2012. If the Cyclones continue a strong season it will be interesting to see if Matt Campbell makes a quick two year jump like Tom Herman did last season, knowing winning in Ames will always be an uphill battle as there figures to be prominent openings this offseason.
 
Oklahoma and the Big XII might not recover this season. TCU is the only undefeated team remaining in the conference and the Frogs barely snuck by West Virginia last week. TCU still has to play in Manhattan, Norman, and Lubbock (as well as Ames) as winning out is a long shot for a good but likely not great team. Even if TCU goes 12-0, they will have to play the #2 team in the Big XII again with the conference instituting a championship game. Oklahoma could still make the case for playoff inclusion by winning out and winding up in that conference championship game with the weight of the big win in Columbus should the Buckeyes finish strong. They probably need Iowa State to continue an upstart season as a loss to say a 4-8 squad would be hard to overcome as despite the big win, the Cyclones will be dogged in all of their remaining games aside from this week’s game with Kansas and possibly a game at Baylor.  
 
The Chiefs are the only unbeaten team through five weeks in the NFL and there is only one other team left with only one loss in AFC, division rival Denver who has only played four games. Kansas City failed despite getting a home game in the playoffs last season and they have a chance to avenge that game with Pittsburgh again visiting Arrowhead this week. The Chiefs have games at Oakland, hosting Denver, and at Dallas before a Week 10 bye week as Kansas City will have a chance to assert themselves as the class of the league or they will fall back to the pack in the next month.
 
The Giants don’t deserve to be 0-5 but they now will play the rest of the season without their biggest star. The schedule isn’t kind to a depleted offense drawing Denver and Seattle defenses the next two weeks as New York will go from 11-5 to a disastrous season to put second year head coach Ben McAdoo in a difficult position. The Browns and 49ers had the first two picks in the NFL draft and both are on pace to be in contention for the bottom of the league again. San Francisco has Chicago’s ‘18 1st round pick as well and with very competitive performances this year under Kyle Shanahan including back-to-back overtime defeats there is some promise moving forward.
 
In Cleveland Hue Jackson is now 1-20 as the team’s head coach and while it would be unfair to pin the dysfunction of the organization entirely on him this year’s team has again failed to make progress and already might be moving on to another quarterback. This week they get a first-hand look at a rookie quarterback that in just weeks has established himself as a franchise player for the Texans. Watson was picked with the 12th pick in the draft, a pick they acquired from the Browns. The Browns had that pick from making a trade with the Eagles in the 2016 draft, a pick the Eagles used to draft Carson Wentz who looks like the leader in Philadelphia for the foreseeable future with the team already 4-1 this season behind his strong play. The Browns ironically also traded with the Eagles to move up and draft their hopeful franchise quarterback in the first round just two years before that, picking Johnny Manziel in the 2014 draft. Best of Luck and on to this week’s slate…

FULL STORY

JOE NELSON HEADLINES
Nelson: Close Calls - Week 6
Nelson: 4th Quarter Covers - Week 7
Nelson: Close Calls - Week 5
Nelson: 4th Quarter Covers - Week 6
Nelson: Louisville at N.C. State
MORE J. NELSON HEADLINES
ACCOLADES AND DOCUMENTED RECORDS
2015-2016 NCAA BK #3 Money Leader: +1,709
2015-2016 NCAA BK #3 Percent Leader: 56%
2014 MLB #3 Favorites Leader: +1,100
2013-2014 NBA #3 Totals Leader: +993
2013-2014 NFL Money Leader: +1,340
2013-2014 NFL Percent Leader: 60%
2013-2014 NFL Guaranteed Leader: +805
2013-2014 NCAA FB Percent Leader: 60%
2013-2014 NCAA FB #2 Money Leader: +1,446
2013-2014 NCAA FB #3 Member Leader: +940
2012-2013 NFL #2 Member Leader: +200
2012-2013 NCAA FB Guaranteed Leader: +722
2012 MLB Guaranteed Leader: +2,480
2012 #2 MLB Totals Leader: +1,208
2011-2012 NBA #2 Money Leader: +1,219
2011-2012 NBA #3 Percent Leader: 55%
2011-2012 NBA #3 Member Leader: +711
2011 MLB #3 Underdog Leader: +1,607
2011 MLB #2 Member Leader: +1,789
2008-2009 NCAA BK Guaranteed Leader: +1,250
2007-2008 NCAA BK Member Leader: +1,450
2008 MLB #2 Guaranteed Leader: +2,236
2007-2008 NFL #3 Money Leader: +1,470
2006-2007 NCAA FB Member Leader
2006-2007 NBA #3 Percent Leader: 54%
2006 MLB #2 Member Leader: +1,238
2006 MLB #3 Money Leader: +214

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Period: 09/17/2017 to 10/17/2017
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Record: 16-6-0 ( 72.7% , +965)
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