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Joe Nelson - About Me

Joe Nelson has been a regular on the Vegas Insider leader board since 2006. Well known for producing the Nelly’s Sportsline Green Sheet football newsletter, Nelson provides his very best picks to Vegas Insider clients.
 
The 2013-14 football season was especially profitable for Nelson, finishing as the Vegas Insider win percentage leader in BOTH the NFL and college football at 60%, finishing as the money leader in the NFL and #2 in money earned in college football amongst the deep and excellent field of handicappers at Vegas Insider. Few handicappers have ever been able to put together such strong finishes in both disciplines in the same season.
 
Nelson has also produced strong seasons in basketball and baseball in addition to the success in football as a long list of documented top finishes on Vegas Insider indicates. Nelson was also the champion of the prestigious Wise Guys Football Contest in 2011, besting a field of 72 national handicappers and then went on to finish 2nd in the same contest in 2012 for impressive back-to-back finishes.
 
With a statistics background and years of experience working with several established handicappers as well as over a decade as a professional handicapper, Nelson provides a unique approach with traditional methods as well as innovative strategies. Nelson’s handicapping focuses on team situations, schedule analysis, and line evaluation as well as following a variety of statistical indicators that are incorporated into the process.
 
You can find regular blog posts and articles for insight and commentary throughout the year and be sure to consider getting on board for a successful season.

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NEW BLOG UPDATE

By Joe Nelson
Posted 12/11/2017 at 04:12 PM

We mentioned a few ago concerns about the health of Carson Wentz long term in the Eagles offense with the high number of pass attempts and his relentless ability to keep plays alive and run for extra yardage. Unfortunately an MVP caliber season for Wentz is over. Nick Foles is a capable backup quarterback and the top two NFC seeds could both be cast aside Rams quarterbacks. Los Angeles doesn’t mind as Jared Goff continues to impress, even in last week’s loss.
 
Right now the NFC wild card matchups would be Saints/Panthers and Rams/Falcons for a very exciting pairing. In the AFC it would be Jaguars/Bills and Chiefs/Titans as Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger have to love how things are shaping up regardless of how this week’s big head-to-head meeting goes as an AFC Championship rematch looks highly likely. Injuries have been adding up for both teams however and neither and the best defense in the playoffs will certainly belong to Jacksonville on the AFC side. If the Chargers win the AFC West however being the #1 seed in the AFC might not be preferred as the Chargers would be a dangerous #4 seed that could give the top seed a serious test.
 
The early week spreads show three double-digit favorites in Week 15 with some growing spreads to fade teams that have fallen out of contention. Two of those heavy favorites are coming off losses. Backing good teams in mismatches off losses seems like a favorable situation but those teams are just 74-83-4 ATS since 2004 including just 2-5 ATS this season. There are some intriguing lines this week with a 9-4 Panthers team that just beat the NFC’s then #1 seed barely favored over a 7-6 Packers team that miraculously won in overtime against a 0-13 team. The 3-10 49ers are also chalk against the 8-5 Titans. Quarterback situations are clearly in play in both of those games with the valuation of Aaron Rodgers perhaps having as big of an impact as any player in the NFL.
 
The Bears and 49ers are both showing some late season life as potential sleepers for next season in the NFC behind new quarterbacks. Both will draft early next spring while San Francisco will also have Chicago’s 3rd round pick. The Browns haven’t been able to get over the hump but they will have two top 10 picks in next year’s draft thanks to Houston struggling this season. Cleveland is the youngest team in the league and it has shown but there is a lot of talent on the roster and this doesn’t look like a 0-13 team by most measures. Front office and coaching instability as well as the uncertainty at quarterback will prevent high hopes for a franchise that otherwise has some promising signs for the future.
 
The Bowl season kicks off with five Saturday games this week before a near daily run of action through New Year’s Day. The NFL will also steal the spotlight a bit with two Saturday games. The Chargers/Chiefs matchup will play a big role in deciding the AFC West race. The loser could still make the playoffs with both teams having relatively favorable Week 16 and 17 matchups. Baltimore has the best remaining path of the teams outside of the AFC picture as the current wild teams Tennessee and Buffalo could be in trouble with the Bills still playing at New England and Tennessee drawing the Rams and Jaguars in the final two weeks.
 
With last week’s win over the Bengals the 4-9 Chicago Bears are 3-0 vs. the AFC North and they still haven’t played the winless Browns. Carolina’s rise to a playoff position is thanks to a 4-0 record vs. the AFC East and ultimately the entire rise of the NFC South as the most competitive division could be in part to that draw. The NFC is 32-22 vs. the AFC with only the AFC West posting a winning record collectively, drawing the NFC East. Best of Luck and on to this week’s slate…

FULL STORY

NEW BLOG UPDATE

By Joe Nelson
Posted 12/04/2017 at 04:57 PM

Despite outcry in some circles the College Football Playoff committee remained consistent with what they have done in the past few years by taking 11-1 Alabama over 11-2 Big Ten champion Ohio State. A two-loss team has still never made the playoff field and last season the Buckeyes trumped their own division and conference champion for inclusion even with a head-to-head loss. Watching sound clips for Urban Meyer and Nick Saban from last year to this year making the exact opposite arguments is comical but neither can be faulted for fighting for their teams. Certainly Las Vegas agrees that the Tide is one of the top four as the favorite to claim the title from the #4 spot. College Football is still entertainment at its heart and ultimately the committee would have been crazy to turn down a semifinal rematch of what has been an amazing title game the past two years between Clemson and Alabama in favor of a rematch of what was the very worst College Football Playoff game, last season’s Clemson 31-0 win over Ohio State.
 
Bad losses hurt you more than good wins help you is a clear message in the committee’s approach though #1 Clemson’s loss at 4-8 Syracuse is certainly the worst caliber that any playoff team has had in the history of the format. Expansion to eight teams will be called for and while on paper that is appealing, we are yet to have a season where a truly deserving team has been left out, rather all controversy has involved is choosing between teams with losses and serious flaws. Had 13-0 Wisconsin been left out in favor of Alabama, a plausible scenario that some argued for before last weekend, the case for expansion would have some merit.  
 
The current NFC playoff field would feature only one team that made the playoffs last season with 8-4 Seattle getting a huge win over Philadelphia last week to stay in wild card position. Half of the AFC playoff field from last season would turn over if the current placements hold. Oakland and Atlanta are alive to change that composition but it certainly looks likely that at least half the field will be new teams and currently all four NFC divisions would have new champions.
 
With four weeks to go several season win total tickets are being realized. We have three of our six over/under picks from the preseason Annual locked up as winners (Giants UNDER 9, Rams OVER 5.5, and Texans UNDER 8.5). Our remaining picks are all toss-ups at this point (Seahawks UNDER 10.5, Chiefs UNDER 9, Dolphins OVER 7.5). One of the most popular ‘UNDER’ bets last summer has been lost as the Jets reached win #5 last week with near universal pessimism for New York. The two 10-2 teams in the AFC were the two top teams in the AFC win total projections while the two 10-2 NFC teams were projected sixth and ninth in the NFC before the season started based on win totals.
 
This week might be the best remaining opportunity for the Browns to avoid going 0-16 this season, now losers of 29 straight Sunday games. Green Bay picked up an overtime win last week despite posting just 204 yards of offense in regulation and the Packers have averaged just 17 points per game under Brett Hundley who followed up his strong performance Sunday night against the Steelers with just 84 passing yards against a marginal Buccaneers defense. The Browns have their home finale with a surging Ravens team next week for a difficult matchup and the final two games are on the road, although a Week 16 date in Chicago will be a possible opportunity for a win as well. Josh Gordon returned last week and had 85 receiving yards and the defensive numbers for the Browns are far better than seemingly any 0-12 team would have. Turnovers as usual will be the key as the Browns have 30 on the season. Best of Luck and on to this week’s slate…

FULL STORY

JOE NELSON HEADLINES
Nelson: Close Calls - Week 14
Nelson: Close Calls - Week 13
Nelson: 4th Quarter Covers - Week 14
Nelson: Title Tips - Group of Five
Nelson: Close Calls - Week 12
MORE J. NELSON HEADLINES
ACCOLADES AND DOCUMENTED RECORDS
2017 MLB #3 Totals Leader: +682
2015-2016 NCAA BK #3 Money Leader: +1,709
2015-2016 NCAA BK #3 Percent Leader: 56%
2014 MLB #3 Favorites Leader: +1,100
2013-2014 NBA #3 Totals Leader: +993
2013-2014 NFL Money Leader: +1,340
2013-2014 NFL Percent Leader: 60%
2013-2014 NFL Guaranteed Leader: +805
2013-2014 NCAA FB Percent Leader: 60%
2013-2014 NCAA FB #2 Money Leader: +1,446
2013-2014 NCAA FB #3 Member Leader: +940
2012-2013 NFL #2 Member Leader: +200
2012-2013 NCAA FB Guaranteed Leader: +722
2012 MLB Guaranteed Leader: +2,480
2012 #2 MLB Totals Leader: +1,208
2011-2012 NBA #2 Money Leader: +1,219
2011-2012 NBA #3 Percent Leader: 55%
2011-2012 NBA #3 Member Leader: +711
2011 MLB #3 Underdog Leader: +1,607
2011 MLB #2 Member Leader: +1,789
2008-2009 NCAA BK Guaranteed Leader: +1,250
2007-2008 NCAA BK Member Leader: +1,450
2008 MLB #2 Guaranteed Leader: +2,236
2007-2008 NFL #3 Money Leader: +1,470
2006-2007 NCAA FB Member Leader
2006-2007 NBA #3 Percent Leader: 54%
2006 MLB #2 Member Leader: +1,238
2006 MLB #3 Money Leader: +214


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Period: 11/14/2017 to 12/14/2017
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 14-9-0 ( 60.9% , +418)
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12/11/2017 at 04:12 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 11

12/04/2017 at 04:57 PM
Between the Lines - Dec. 4

11/27/2017 at 04:57 PM
Between the Lines - Nov. 27

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