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Joe Nelson - About Me

Joe Nelson has been a regular on the Vegas Insider leader board since 2006. Well known for producing the Nelly’s Sportsline Green Sheet football newsletter, Nelson provides his very best picks to Vegas Insider clients.
 
The 2013-14 football season was especially profitable for Nelson, finishing as the Vegas Insider win percentage leader in BOTH the NFL and college football at 60%, finishing as the money leader in the NFL and #2 in money earned in college football amongst the deep and excellent field of handicappers at Vegas Insider. Few handicappers have ever been able to put together such strong finishes in both disciplines in the same season.
 
Nelson has also produced strong seasons in basketball and baseball in addition to the success in football as a long list of documented top finishes on Vegas Insider indicates. Nelson was also the champion of the prestigious Wise Guys Football Contest in 2011, besting a field of 72 national handicappers and then went on to finish 2nd in the same contest in 2012 for impressive back-to-back finishes.
 
With a statistics background and years of experience working with several established handicappers as well as over a decade as a professional handicapper, Nelson provides a unique approach with traditional methods as well as innovative strategies. Nelson’s handicapping focuses on team situations, schedule analysis, and line evaluation as well as following a variety of statistical indicators that are incorporated into the process.
 
You can find regular blog posts and articles for insight and commentary throughout the year and be sure to consider getting on board for a successful season.

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NEW BLOG UPDATE

By Joe Nelson
Posted 01/26/2018 at 05:22 PM

If you’ve ever wanted to go to the Super Bowl this year’s game presents perhaps your most affordable opportunity. Despite a decrease in demand with the Minneapolis location for advanced planners, a home game Super Bowl for the Vikings could have pushed ticket demand upward significantly. That prospect went up in smoke quickly in the NFC Championship. The Patriots have been in three of the last four Super Bowls and nearly half of the Super Bowls the past 17 years as those looking to make a Super Bowl trip have had plenty of opportunities. There will likely be some late-planning Eagles fans arriving in Minneapolis but they look likely to be greeted by single-digit temperatures though at this point there are no signs of a major snowstorm that could send prices falling. Those that are patient could score Super Bowl tickets for less than $2,000 a piece Super Bowl weekend to sit well below the recent average prices for the Super Bowl and even this year’s College Football Playoff Championship game.
 
While some may be sick of seeing Tom Brady on the sidelines in the Super Bowl year after year it has been a truly legendary run that rivals that of any professional athlete in the major U.S. sports. Certainly next season the Patriots will be among the Super Bowl favorites again regardless of what happens this week. New England appears to be losing both offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia but they will remain in an AFC East with limited threat of a competition and in an AFC as a whole that lacks a great depth of squads that look ready to contend. This season in the NFC all four NFC division champions went from 3rd of 4th place the previous year with only one repeat playoff participant. The AFC featured far less fluctuation with three of four repeat division champions. The rise of long downtrodden franchises in Jacksonville and Buffalo to the playoffs means anything can still happen however and with a SBLII win there will be rumblings about the Belichick/Brady duo stepping down especially in light of the late season news story suggesting some internal strife in the league’s model franchise.
 
Looking ahead at the 2018-19 season teams that immediately look likely to receive attention for a positive jump are the Chargers and Texans in the AFC, with the Colts a candidate as well depending on Andrew Luck. The Packers and Giants will get some obvious support for a bounce-back but Chicago and Tampa Bay are threats as well and San Francisco will also be expected to carry its late season momentum into next season. A few more 3rd or 4th place rises to division titles in the NFC look very possible next season.
 
While Brady will be the focal point of the coverage this week seeking his sixth Super Bowl title, Nick Foles has a chance to cement himself into NFL lore much in the way Jeff Hostetler did in Super Bowl XXV. In the first of four Super Bowl losses the Bills were favorites by a touchdown against the Giants with Hostetler taking over to start the final two games and the playoff run. Hostetler had only started two games prior to that season as Foles has been a much more accomplished player but like Hostetler should Foles win the Super Bowl for the Eagles he isn’t likely to with the team for the long term. Hostetler did start with the Giants the following season with a new coaching staff but was injured and signed with the Raiders the following season. Foles has a big kicker in his contract if he is still on the Philadelphia roster next February as he is certain to be dealt before then. The run for Foles would be gratifying for his head coach as well with Doug Pederson, a career backup, who was eventually benched in his one season as the clear starter with the Eagles in 1999. Best of Luck and on to this week’s slate…

FULL STORY

NEW BLOG UPDATE

By Joe Nelson
Posted 01/15/2018 at 04:53 PM

The last time Doug Marrone faced the Patriots as a head coach his Bills won 17-9 at New England late in the 2014 season. It was a meaningless Week 17 game for the Patriots with Jimmy Garoppolo playing much of the game. In 2015 Marrone was on the Jacksonville staff for the 51-17 win for the Patriots in the last meeting between these teams. The one head coach that has had the upper hand on Bill Belichick is with the Jaguars organization as former Giants head coach Tom Coughlin is an executive vice president with the team. Coughlin beat Belichick in a pair of Super Bowls but also lost to the Patriots as the Jaguars head coach in the 1997-1998 AFC Championship (Bill Parcells). Coughlin led the Jaguars to a playoff win over the Patriots (Pete Carroll) in the 1998-99 wild card round as well though both of those games were pre-Belichick/Brady. These teams met 10 years ago in the playoffs as well with New England winning 31-20 in the divisional round on the way to the Super Bowl XLII loss to the Giants, ending the perfect season.
 
The notion that it takes an elite quarterback to win a Super Bowl will be tested this season as Tom Brady stands alone as the proven signal-caller among the quartet of Blake Bortles, Nick Foles, and Case Keenum. Bortles had some success in mixed fourth season while Foles is obviously an injury replacement but does have plenty of wins on his resume as a former starter. Keenum has had a pro-bowl caliber season statistically in the most unexpected breakout season. One of the former Rams teammates Foles or Keenum will be starting in the Super Bowl as the Eagles or Vikings will have to advance despite a miserable NFC Championship track record for both franchises.
 
The Vikings have lost the last five NFC Championships they have been a part of with the most recent result the heartbreaking overtime loss to the Saints in the 2009-10 season, a game the Vikings had a massive yardage edge in but had five turnovers including the infamous Brett Favre interception. The Eagles have lost four of their last five NFC Championship games, only advancing to the Super Bowl in the 2004-05 season. Philadelphia, like Minnesota and Jacksonville, has never won the Super Bowl while the Patriots will look to tie Pittsburgh with a sixth title.
 
The Patriots are an outlier in a negative way in this final four grouping however as Minnesota, Jacksonville, and Philadelphia all rate among the league’s top four total defenses with New England 29th. All four teams finished in the league’s top 5 in scoring defense however. New England allowed 457 yards per game in the first four weeks of the season and 336 yards per game in the final 12 games as New England’s defense certainly has looked the part of late.
 
A pair of late January outdoor games in the Northeast seems to suggest some potential weather concerns but the early week forecasts in Foxborough and Philadelphia are balmy with kickoff temperatures in upper 40s with clear conditions and limited wind for this time of year.
 
The past three NFC Championship home underdogs have all been +3½-point home underdogs with all three games being single-score results with the road favorites winning and covering in the two most recent instances (San Francisco 28-24 in ’12-13, Green Bay 21-14 in ’10-11) while Arizona bested the Eagles as a home underdog 32-25 in ’08-09, the last championship appearance for Philadelphia. Since Jacksonville (-7) lost to the Titans 33-14 in the 1999-2000 AFC Championship, favorites of 7 or more in the AFC title game are on a 3-5 ATS run with three outright upsets, most recently with the Ravens (+8) winning 28-13 at New England in the 2012-13 AFC Championship. Best of Luck and on to this week’s slate…

FULL STORY

JOE NELSON HEADLINES
Nelson: Close Calls - Week 17
Nelson: Fiesta & Orange Previews
Nelson: Close Calls - Week 16
Nelson: Hawaii Bowl Preview
Nelson: Close Calls - Week 15
MORE J. NELSON HEADLINES
ACCOLADES AND DOCUMENTED RECORDS
2017 MLB #3 Totals Leader: +682
2015-2016 NCAA BK #3 Money Leader: +1,709
2015-2016 NCAA BK #3 Percent Leader: 56%
2014 MLB #3 Favorites Leader: +1,100
2013-2014 NBA #3 Totals Leader: +993
2013-2014 NFL Money Leader: +1,340
2013-2014 NFL Percent Leader: 60%
2013-2014 NFL Guaranteed Leader: +805
2013-2014 NCAA FB Percent Leader: 60%
2013-2014 NCAA FB #2 Money Leader: +1,446
2013-2014 NCAA FB #3 Member Leader: +940
2012-2013 NFL #2 Member Leader: +200
2012-2013 NCAA FB Guaranteed Leader: +722
2012 MLB Guaranteed Leader: +2,480
2012 #2 MLB Totals Leader: +1,208
2011-2012 NBA #2 Money Leader: +1,219
2011-2012 NBA #3 Percent Leader: 55%
2011-2012 NBA #3 Member Leader: +711
2011 MLB #3 Underdog Leader: +1,607
2011 MLB #2 Member Leader: +1,789
2008-2009 NCAA BK Guaranteed Leader: +1,250
2007-2008 NCAA BK Member Leader: +1,450
2008 MLB #2 Guaranteed Leader: +2,236
2007-2008 NFL #3 Money Leader: +1,470
2006-2007 NCAA FB Member Leader
2006-2007 NBA #3 Percent Leader: 54%
2006 MLB #2 Member Leader: +1,238
2006 MLB #3 Money Leader: +214


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Period: 01/20/2018 to 02/20/2018
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Record: 3-2-0 ( 60.0% , +87)
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