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Posted 06/12/2009 at 10:38 PM
UFC 99: The Comeback is the Ultimate Fighting Championship's first show in Europe, and there are plenty of quality contests on paper so let's break down a couple key matchups.
RICH FRANKLIN -130
This headline event is a matchup between two former champions in dire need of a victory. Rich 'Ace' Franklin lost to Dan Henderson his last fight, missing out on a coaching gig on The Ultimate Fighter 9. Wanderlei 'The Axe Murderer' Silva has dropped four of his last fights. These two fighters are in the process of switching weight divisions, with Franklin moving to light heavyweight and Silva dropping down to middleweight. Naturally, this meeting will occur at the catch weight of 195 pounds.
Franklin used to dominate the middleweight division with his size, picking opponents apart from the outside with an assortment of leg kicks and counter punches. Wanderlei was always considered a smaller light heavyweight, and he will have to absorb some blows to get inside against Franklin. 'The Axe Murderer' has an exciting fighting style (as evidenced by his nickname), but has suffered three brutal knockouts recently including his last fight against Quinton 'Rampage' Jackson.
Look for Franklin to dictate the pace with his spacing, keeping the aggressive Silva at bay and picking his shots. This should frustrate the Brazilian striker, resulting in a mistake that Franklin capitilizes on to prevail with a technical knockout in the second round.
CHEICK KONGO +179
This is my biggest play for UFC 99, and I was really surprised when I saw the line. I figured if Cain Velasquez was favored, it would be in the $1.20 range but not the $1.85 or even $2.00 I've been seeing at some places offshore. There are a couple of reasons why Cheick Kongo will win this fight by unanimous decision, if not by knockout.
Kongo might have a shot at the UFC heavyweight title should he get past Velasquez. The French kickboxer has more experience than his opponent, going 7-2 in the UFC with both of his losses occurring by split decision. Kongo has the advantage in the standup game, with superior reach and striking with his kickboxing background. The key for Kongo winning is to keep this fight standing because Velasquez (a former wrestler at Arizona State) has the advantage should this fight go to the ground.
This marks a huge step up in talent for Velasquez, but will have to take some punishment to get inside and get Kongo down (who along with lethal kicks also has an impressive arsenal of knees). Handicapping this fight comes down to a couple of things, Kongo wins if it stays standing and he avoids the takedowns. Velasquez wins if he gets Kongo off his feet and he grounds and pounds the Frenchman. At this price, I'll take my shot at the underdog.
MARCUS DAVIS -185
The leadup to this fight has featured a spirited war of worlds, but that doesn't always translate into a great matchup. Marcus Davis is the more well-rounded fighter, and can finish a fight in more ways while Dan Hardy has an impressive Muay Thai background. Hardy has the advantage in reach, but Davis is a crisper striker and usually has a superior gameplan compliments of coach Mark Dellagrotte. Look for Davis to take this fight to the ground en route to a second-round submission victory.
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