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Stephen Nover - Blogs

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HOME RUN PROP

By Stephen Nover
Posted 02/20/2015 at 09:44 AM

Kudos to those books who already have come out with baseball prop bets.

Here are two early recommendations to hit the most home runs. Odds courtesy of the Golden Nugget.

I don't like to go with favorites because the odds are so short. My preference is to throw a peanut on mid-to-long range shots that I perceive as having value.

Based on that my choices are Evan Gattis at 80-1 and Troy Tulowitzki at 40-1.

Gattis has been in the majors for two years, both with the Braves in a part-time role. In 2013, the right-handed Gattis hit 21 homers in 354 at bats and last year he smacked 22 homers in 369 at bats.

Now Gattis is with the Astros. This works out to his benefit in numerous ways. He's in the American League, which doesn't have the pitching of the National League. He'll be playing half of his games at Minute Maid Park, which is a hitter's park especially for right-handed batters.

Gattis also is 28, which often can be a strong year in a player's career.

The biggest factor is Gattis now will be playing every day. The Astros want his bat in the lineup. Gattis will be able to play first base, outfield and DH. Rarely will he have to catch again, which is a physically draining position.

Tulowitzki is a monster. He just can't stay healthy. He hit 21 homers in 315 at bats last season playing in 91 games. That's a little more than half of the season. If Tulowitzki could have stayed healthy and maintained that pace he might have led the majors in homers. That honor went to Nelson Cruz, who smacked 40 home runs.

Playing at Coors Field certainly doesn't hurt Tulowitzki. It has been six years since the injury-plagued Tulowitzki last played in more than 143 games.

That's why he's 40-1. But Tulowitzki is reported to be fully healthy now. He's still only 30 and doesn't have that much mileage on him because he's missed so much time.

BLOG ARCHIVES
02/20/2015 at 09:44 AM
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