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At the Gate - Thursday
October 29, 2009
By Mike Dempsey VegasInsider.com
T he pre entries for next week’s Breeders’ Cup were announced yesterday, and past performances for the two day championship event are already available for those who want to get an early start on handicapping.
With past performances in hand a full nine days before the first Breeders’ Cup race is run gives us plenty of time to come up with the winners.
There were 166 horses entered in the 14 races, and while we are missing Rachel Alexandra, Sea the Stars, Fabulous Strike, Icon Project, and Indian Blessing to name a few, there still is plenty of star power.
In fact, I count nine 2008 Breeders’ Cup winners that are entered again this year: Goldikova, Maram, Midshipman, Muhannak, Conduit, Desert Code, Forever Together, Ventura, and Zenyatta.
In addition, Red Rocks, who won the 2006 Turf is entered again this year.
The most anticipated decision coming up in the next week will be made by Jerry Moss and John Shirreffs, the owner and trainer of Zenyatta,
The undefeated mare was entered in both the Ladies’ Classic and the Classic, with the latter noted as first preference.
Early indications are it seems the connections are leaning on taking the boys on in the Classic.
We will have plenty of time to talk Breeders’ Cup early next week. We need to cash a few tickets at Aqueduct and Keeneland the next few days to make sure we have a nice large bankroll for next weekend.
To purchase my full card report for Keeneland and Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opening race from Keeneland to get our day off to a good start:
KEE Race 1 Md $15,000 (1:05 ET) #12 Jo Bananas 6/1 #11 Svenska Cat 15/1 #2 Queen Caribees 6/1 #10 Miss Marple 4/1
Analysis: #12 Jo Bananas was rank while down along the inside heading down the backstretch, made a middle move to get into the mix and ran out of gas in the stretch in a seventh place finish against $17.5K claimers. McPeek adds blinkers and his go to jock in Albarado while catching what looks like a real weak group here tagged for $15K. The outside draw is not bargain but there just is not much else in here to get excited about.
#11 Svenska Cat tries two turns for the first time here after a dull effort last out. This gal landed in the money in her previous three starts and now gets a jock upgrade from the seven pound bug to Emigh. The key is whether this gal can get two turns and her low profile pedigree is not exactly giving me a ton of confidence, but her price figures to be decent.
Wagering WIN: #12 to win at 7/2 or better. EX: 11,12 / 2,10,11,12 TRI: 11,12 / 2,10,11,12 / 2,4,9,10,11,12
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 OClm $50,000N2X (3:44 ET) #5 Hold That Prospect 3/1 #7 River Fancy 5/2 #4 Sneaky Girl 3/1 #3 Olde Glamour 9/2
Analysis: #5 Hold That Prospect set the early fractions and weakened to finish sixth last out against $25K starter handicap company. The filly won back to back in her two previous starts including a win at this level three back on a wet track. The Guillo barn has been quiet the past couple of months after being very live earlier this year.
#7 River Fancy pressed the early pace and faded badly to finish a distant seventh in stakes company in the slop. Three back this gal was a game second in NJ at today's condition. She is better than she showed last out and figures to bounce back for a sharp barn.
Wagering WIN: #5 to win at 5/2 or better. EX: 5,7 / 3,4,5,7 TRI: 5,7 / 3,4,5,7 / 3,4,5,,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:
KEE Race 8 Alw $54,000N2X (4:35 ET) #5 Mega 15/1 #10 Ocean Colors 3/1 #1 Stealin' Kisses 5/1 #2 Langs Lash 6/1
Analysis: #5 Mega tracked the early pace form the inside, had to steady in traffic and faded to finish a well beaten 11th. Two back at the Mountain the filly was sixth in a stake, a race that produced three next out winners. This filly passed her first allowance condition at Del Park going 7 1/2 furlongs in gate to wire fashion. She just needs a better trip and she should be sitting just off the early pace in this spot. She can be in the mix with her best at a generous price.
#10 Ocean Colors returns off a two month break after dueling for the early lead and fading to finish sixth in the slop in the Ms Woodford. Her lone go on turf produced a win against ALw-1 company at Churchill Downs three back. How about that pedigree, by Grade 1 winner Orientate out of the Grade 1 winner Winning Colors ($1.5 million) who never tried turf but she has three other foals that have won on the lawn.
Wagering WIN: #5 to win at 8/1 or better. EX: 5,10 / 1,2,5,10 TRI: 5,10 / 1,2,5,10 / 1,2,5,9,10,11
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Keeneland R1: #11 Svenka Cat 15/1 R2: #2 Crazy Coyote 8/1 R3: #3 Faith’s Magic 10/1 R3: #6 Astaire 12/1 R5: #7 Budge Man 8/1 R7: #9 Map of the World 12/1 R8: #5 Mega 151 R9: #5 Spark of Humor 8/1
Aqueduct R4: #6 Oedipus O’Neal 12/1 R5: #5 Royal Vessel 12/1 R7: #4 Budget 10/1
Good luck today!
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