We turned a profit with my top picks at both Aqueduct and Keeneland on Thursday, and we have just two days left to show profits at Keeneland, which concludes the fall meeting on Saturday.
We have has bad weather and off tracks at the Big A, but after two days I have eight winners on top in 18 races. Yesterday we had four more winners on top, good for a +51% +ROI for the day.
We had three winners on top in nine races at Keeneland, producing a +37% +ROI for the day.
The weather is supposed to improve in New York, and I am guessing we are finally going to get to see a turf race today.
The turf course at Keeneland likely still will have some give to it, but with just two days left in the meeting, I doubt any of the remaining turf races will be moved to the main track.
With Keeneland closing on Saturday, we will have plenty of time to talk about the Breeders’ Cup. I plan to spend most of this weekend going over the past performances and I should have a few early picks next week.
My Breeders’ Cup package will be available on Thursday. It will include my selections, analysis, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for both cards.
To purchase my full card report for Keeneland and Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opening race from Keeneland to get our day off to a good start:
KEE Race 1 Md $30,000 (1:05 ET)
#4 Matai 12/1
#6 Coal Cutter 5/1
#12 Tizallaboutme 6/1
#2 Royal Rossi 7/2
Analysis: #4 Matai drops a notch in class for her second start of the meeting and second go off a five month layoff. Last out going 6 1/2 furlongs, the colt tracked the early pace and faded to finish ninth. The colt has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out, by Orchard Park out of the stakes winner Mediation ($195K) who has dropped six winners including Grade 1 winner Go Between ($2.9 million). The barn is 24% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route. Runners making their second start of the short meet here have run well and the 12/1 looks fair enough although I have been less than impressed with the bug Lenclud.
#6 Coal Cutter stalked the early pace and had to punch in the stretch in a fifth place finish at 6/1 going 6 1/2 furlongs at Arlington. The $175K Keeneland purchase drops in for a tag for the Catalano barn that is 42% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route. Albarado takes the call but the usual high % barn is just 1 for 21 at the meet here, so let's not take too light a price on this colt.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 2,4,6,12
TRI: 4,6 / 2,4,6,12 / 1,2,4,6,7,12
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 Alw $44,000N1X (3:44 ET)
#1 Spa City Fever / #1a Joey's Chance 6/1
#9 Quiet On the Tee 5/2
#4 Cash'n in Dixie 3/1
#2 Whirlwind Poppy 4/1
Analysis: #1 Spa City Fever went gate to wire in the slop to break his maiden in a good looking effort. His last turf try came three back in his second career start and checked in a decent third. The gelding has three sibs that are winners and two of them have won on turf. The gelding may still have some room for improvement here and may be a decent enough price.
His entry mate #1a Joey's Chance made a mild late bid to finish fifth last out and stretches back out to a route. I like the jock switch back to Edgar, who was aboard this guy three back going a mile on the turf and he was beaten just a neck for the top spot. Completes a strong entry at a decent price.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 1,9 / 1,2,4,9
TRI: 1,9 / 1,2,4,9 / 1,2,3,4,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:
KEE Race 9 Alw $52,000N1X (5:05 ET)
#10 Million Seller 6/1
#3 Cruisin'nthebridle 9/2
#6 Proud Lisa 5/1
#2 Altessa 12/1
Analysis: #10 Million Seller gets the nod here in this turf marathon as at least this gal has tired the distance, checking in a non threatening sixth last out at Ky Downs over soft turf. She was second two back going two miles at the Spa in a decent effort. She has a long winded pedigree, by A.P. Indy out of Sunday Silence mare. Motion sends out a pair here and Rose lands on this gal.
#3 Cruisin'nthebridle broke her maiden last out over good ground in her fifth try. She overcame running into traffic while down along the inside on the far turn and finished up well. She is a half to five others that have won on turf including a couple of stakes winners, but I am not sure she has enough pedigree power to handle the extra ground here.
Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 3,10 / 2,3,6,10
TRI: 3,10 / 2,3,6,10 / 2,3,6,7,10
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Keeneland
R1: #4 Matai 12/1
R2: #5 Beckley 8/1
R2: #7 Connie’s June Moon 12/1
R3: #2 King Andrew 8/1
R5: #5 Steps Silver Halo 10/1
R6: #8 Wynchase 8/1
R6: #2 Patti’s Regal Song 10/1
R6: #10 Iwillinaminute 10/1
R7: #8 Clapham 12/1
R8: #11 Toll 8/1
R9: 32 Altessa 12/1
R10: #10 Turntoo 8/1
R10: #5 Cab 12/1
Aqueduct
R1: #2 Bestowed 15/1
R4: #1 Previous Pleasure 8/1
R4: #7 She’s runnin’ Wild 12/1
R5: #4 Well Meant 8/1
R6: #1 Tramezzini 10/1
R6: #13 New York Bobby 8/1
R7: #3 Green harbor 8/1
R9: #1 Read the Form / #1a Justgivemeasecond 15/1
Good luck today!
