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At the Gate - Saturday
October 31, 2009
By Mike Dempsey VegasInsider.com
W e bid adieu to Keeneland today, the 17-day fall meeting concluding this afternoon with a good ten race card.
The feature is the $150,000 Fayette Stakes (G2) for three year olds and upward going nine furlongs on the polytrack.
The race drew a field of ten, led by Parading, who was fourth in the Goodwood (G1) in his last start. The Shug McGaughey six year old won the Ben Ali Stakes (G3) over the polytrack surface last fall.
His 7/5 morning line does not exactly get the pulse racing, so I’m going to take a stab with a longshot.
With Keeneland in the books after today, that will leave us with Aqueduct, and will give us plenty of time to talk Breeders’ Cup next week.
While the wife may be expecting me to do a few things around the house on Sunday, I’ll be spending my day with the past performances for the 14 races making up the Breeders’ Cup two day event, and I plan to spend a few hours watching all the replays of the major stakes races that serve as preps.
I can catch up with the NFL next Sunday.
My Breeders’ Cup package will be available on Thursday. It will include my selections, analysis, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for both cards.
To purchase my full card report for Keeneland and Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opening race from Keeneland to get our day off to a good start:
KEE Race 1 Md $30,000 (1:05 ET) #4 Queen of Empire 3/1 #8 Hibiscus Drive 7/2 #9 Slumpbuster 6/1 #1 Morigami 9/2
Analysis: #4 Queen of Empire is returning off nearly a four-month break. The filly made a mild late run to finish fourth last out in her second career outing going a mile on the turf at Churchill. She drops in for a tag while trying poly, and she is bred for the fake stuff. She is by Empire Maker out of a Seeking the Gold mare. I love the jock switch from the slumping Mena (1 for 71) to Leparoux.
#8 Hibiscus Drive came up short late in a third place finish four a $40K tag in her second career start. The stretch out for this filly should suit. She is by Golden Missile out of a Dixieland Band mare, her first foal to race. The McPeek barn is 23% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.
Wagering WIN: #4 to win at 2/1 or better. EX: 4,8 / 1,4,8,9 TRI: 4,8 / 1,4,8,9 / 1,4,7,8,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 4 Bold Ruler S. G3 (1:52 ET) #1 Sing Baby Sing 3/1 #2 Past the Point 5/2 #5 Cherokee Country 4/1 #6 Le Grand Cru 9/2
Analysis: #1 Sing Baby Sing ships in from Remington for the Bruner barn that is hitting at a 26% clip on the year., This six year old checked in sixth in the BC Sprint (G1) last year and won the Phoenix (G3) at Keeneland, both of those outings on synthetic surfaces. His last dirt try as at his home base in Remington where he made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot in a $200K stake. The barn sticks him in good spots and he has landed in the exacta in 14 of his 20 career starts. He certainly looks like he fits in this spot.
#2 Past the Point was ninth in the Phoenix (G3) after breaking a step slow. This guy hung out in graded stakes company for the most part last year including a runner up finish in the Woodward (G1) behind Curlin. He beat Alw-3 foes three back at this distance earning a figure that makes him a player here.
Wagering WIN: #1 to win at 5/2 or better. EX: 1,2 / 1,2,5 TRI: no play
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:
KEE Race 9 Fayette S. G2 (5:05 ET) #7 Wicked Style 10/1 #3 Parading 7/5 #9 Blame 9/5 #5 National Pride 12/1
Analysis: #7 Wicked Style stalked the early pace from the inside and weakened in the stretch to finish fifth last out in the Kentucky Cup Classic (G2) at Turfway. While he was nearly five lengths behind the winner, the colt did earn a career top speed fig in the effort. The colt has a couple of good morning drills since that outing and returns to the poly at Keeneland where as a two year old he won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). The colt has tactical speed and should get a good tracking trip from just off the pace and unlike our second and third choices, figures to be a decent price. With his best, he has a shot of pulling off the upset.
#3 Parading exits the Goodwood (G1) over the Pro Ride surface. The six year old was clear heading for home but ran out of gas and checked in fourth. His last pair of speed figs put him right in the mix here and he won the Ben Ali (G3) here at the spring meeting at today's nine-furlong distance. He is going to be very tough in this spot if he runs his race, but the price is going to be on the light side.
#9 Blame earned the top last out speed fig in his runner up finish in the Super Derby (G2) behind Regal Ransom, who is Breeders’ Cup bound. The colt broke his maiden over the poly here in his second career start going seven furlongs. The three year old takes on older here but still appears to have plenty of upside potential.
Wagering WIN: #7 to win at 6/1 or better. EX: 3,7 / 3,5,7,9 TRI: 3,7 / 3,5,7,9 / 1,3,5,7,9
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Keeneland R2: #3 Eightsum 20/1 R3: #1 No Llores Catita 8/1 R4: #9 triple Check 15/1 R4: #1 Blue Mon / #1a Montenegro Knight 10/1 R5: #4 Raincatcher 10/1 R5: #1 Ink 8/1 R5: #5 Zip Around 8/1 R6: #3 Mr. Mischief 8/1 R7: #9 Goldzar 12/1 R8: #10 Haven’s Honey 8/1 R8: #2 Wellofaprize 12/1 R9: #7 Wicked Style 10/1 R9: #5 National Pride 12/1
Aqueduct R1: #4 Mint Slewup 12/1 R5: #6 Bwana Brave 12/1 R7: #8 Odysseus 8/1 R9: #5 Way With Words 10/1 R9: #4 Weathered 10/1 R9: #7 Nicksappealinglady 10/1 R10: #5 Raging Meese 20/1
Good luck today!
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