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At the Gate - Wednesday
November 4, 2009
By Mike Dempsey VegasInsider.com
T o nobody’s surprise, Zenyatta will take on the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday instead of defending her title in the Ladies’ Classic on Friday.
The undefeated mare has won 13 races in a row and was installed as the 5/2 morning line favorite in a field of 13 that will go 1 ¼ miles over the Pro Ride surface at Santa Anita.
Second choice in the race is the European invader Rip Van Winkle, with Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird the third choice at 9/2.
Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird is 12/1 on the morning line.
I’m thinking Rip Van Winkle may actually go off as the favorite, and even Summer Bird could take more action than Zenyatta by the time they load in the gate at 6:45 ET.
The word around the backstretch is Rip Van Winkle is battling some minor foot issues, and if that story gets some legs, that might scare a few away from the Aidan O’Brien trainee, who comes into the Classic off back to back smart Group 1 wins.
I will be spending all day Wednesday completing my handicapping reports for the two-day event. After spending all of Sunday doing some early handicapping and watching video of all of the prep races, I think there are several very vulnerable favorites we can beat.
I will have Friday’s card up by Wednesday night, and Saturday’s card will be available by Thursday evening.
In the meantime, we have a couple of days of action at Aqueduct to keep us busy.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 OClm $25,000N2X (12:30 ET) #5 Katskill Bay 6/1 #6 Heir to the Stone 2/1 #1 Afrikaner / #1a Ziptronic 4/1 #3 Rereadthefootnotes 5/2
Analysis: #5 Katskill Bay came with a wide run over a main track that was playing to outside stalkers and closers but could not make an impact late and checked in fourth. The third place finisher in the race was Tall Poppi, who came back to beat state bred Alw-2 optional claimers in his next outing on Oct. 24. This colt was third and second in his two previous starts, beaten less than a length in those outings. We get a positive jock upgrade to Edgar, which might be enough to make the difference.
#6 Heir to the Stone went gate to wire to beat NY bred Alw-1 foes in his second start against winners and has been on the bench since. The colt has decent works on the morning tab for the Violette barn that is 11% winners with horses returning off a +180 day layoff. The colt owns solid early and mid pace numbers and should be in the mix early and this is not a real deep field of second level runners here.
Wagering WIN: #5 to win at 7/2 or better. EX: 5,6 / 1,3,5,6 TRI: 5,6 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,3,5,6,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 Half High S. (3:44 ET) #5 Solar Flare 7/5 #2 Gold Trippi 3/1 #6 Timber Reserve 8/1 #7 More Than a Reason 5/1
#5 Solar Flare is making his first start since July where the five year old checked in third in the Salvatore Mile (G3). He regressed off a huge effort two back when he popped a 111 Beyer winning the Frisk Me Now at Monmouth Park back in May. He lands with the Tony D. barn that is 27% winners with newcomers to the barn. The works signal this guy looks ready to fire and the barn finds a good spot here in this overnight stake.
#2 Gold Trippi is coming off a runner up finish behind Biker Boy in a non conditioned optional claimer. The gelding owns a solid pace profile throughout with good late pace numbers and should get a good pace set up here. He also has won 2 of his 3 starts over the main track.
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct R2: #2 Vamel 15/1 R2: #9 Bindle Stick 10/1 R3: #4 Viable 8/1 R5: #7 Press Only 10/1 R6: #4 Golden Caesar 15/1 R7: #3 Rogue Victory 8/1 R8: #6 Timber Reserve 8/1 R9: #1 Southern Princess / #1a As Promised 12/1
Good luck today!
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