Editor’s Note: Professor Ed Meyer developed the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) handicapping tool, which allows you to check past performances of teams in any situation. His data plays a large part in his expert baseball picks on VegasInsider.com!
Supporting a Starter off a Bad Start
When a starter gets knocked out early, there are three things to investigate when considering a play in his next start. First of all, how will the pitcher respond to poor start. Next, how will his offense perform when they know their starter is off a poor start. Third, and perhaps most importantly, how will their opponent perform when facing a starter who is off a poor start? Also worth considering is whether it matters if the start is at home or on the road.
The Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) offers a opportunity to thoroughly investigate all these. What is interesting is that the poor teams do much better than good teams at home when their starter is off a bad start. This is likely due to a combination of factors. The team’s offense is likely to be very aggressive at the plate, thinking that they are going to need to score something like 5-7 runs to win because their starter is struggling. The opponent’s offense and starter are likely to be overconfident, as they are facing a bad team whose starter is off a bad start. The opponent’s starter is more likely to just “throw strikes” and not worry too much about location because he expects a lot of run support. Also, the opponent’s offense can be lackadaisical versus struggling pitcher on a bad team. And, finally, the starter who is off a bad start is likely to have worked very hard between starts to get in better form.
Now let’s look at the actual results. Specifically, we’ll look at starters who are at home off a start in which they lasted three innings or less, allowed more than three runs and at least two walks. That is certainly a bad outing.
The SDQL text for this situation is:
The s prefix points back to the starter’s last start and SIP is starter innings pitched, SRA is starter runs allowed and SWA is starter walks allowed.
The team with the best straight up record in this situation over the past five-plus season is one of the worst teams in the league. The Washington Nationals are an amazing 17-3 at home when their starter went three innings or less, allowed more than three runs and walked at least two batters in his last start. The Nats were the favorite only ONCE in the twenty games. That’s 85% winners for a team that has been one of the worst in the league.
The Pittsburgh Pirates, are a solid 10-7 (+600) in this situation and the San Francisco Giants are 7-3 (+505).
The perennial contenders have not distinguished themselves in this spot. The Phillies are 5-5, the Cardinals are 4-3, the Red Sox are 4-4 and the Yankees are 6-5.
Looking at the league as a whole, home teams that are below 500 on the season are a very nice 105-83 since the start of the 2004 season when their starter is off a game in which he lasted 3 or fewer innings, allowed more than 3 runs and allowed at least two walks. These teams are plus 32.3 units.
So, next time a bad home team has a starter who is off a bad performance, don’t be too quick to play against them -- especially if that team is the Washington Nationals.
