Editor's Note: Click here for World Series winners, including Brian Edwards' total for Game 6, as Edwards is on fire this postseason, going 11-3 his last 14 plays (+922).
The Yankees can close out their 27th World Series title on Wednesday, as they return home to host the Phillies in Game 6. Philadelphia stayed alive with an 8-6 victory on Monday to cut the series deficit to 3-2. The Phils received a pair of home runs from Chase Utley and another homer from Raul Ibanez to stave off a late Yankees' rally.
All three games at Citizens Bank Park sailed 'over' the total, while the two contests at Yankee Stadium finished 'under' the total. The losing team in each of the first two games scored just one run, as Pedro Martinez tries to save Philadelphia's season. Martinez pitched well enough to win Game 2, but allowed solo homers to Mark Teixiera and Hideki Matsui in a 3-1 loss. Martinez scattered six hits in six innings, while striking out eight, but the Phillies couldn't hit A.J. Burnett (the Phils got revenge in Game 5).
Andy Pettitte goes for his fourth win of the postseason, as the veteran lefty held off the Phillies' bats in the Game 3 victory. Pettitte even contributed an RBI in the 8-5 comeback victory, despite allowing a pair of homers. The Yankees' southpaw has pitched into the seventh inning in each of his four playoff starts, while winning his lone home start against the Angels, 5-2.
Even though Pettitte's last start flew 'over' the total, the lefty has been a solid 'under' play this season. Sixteen of Pettitte's 25 night starts and 11 of his 17 home outings have finished 'under' the total. The Yankees are 7-4 in his home starts to the run-line, if you are considering that route, instead of laying the long number strictly on the money-line.
Utley has been on fire for the Phillies, knocking out five homers in the series, including two in the series opener. On the flip side, Ryan Howard has struggled mightily, going 3 for 19 with only one RBI, while striking out 12 times. Jayson Werth was the only hitter to get to Pettitte in Game 3, hitting two homers. Meanwhile, Utley, Howard, Ibanez, and Shane Victorino went a combined 0 for 15 in that Game 3 loss.
In the Game 2 win against Martinez, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter combined for one hit in six at-bats, while striking out four times. After A-Rod's slow start in the World Series, the Yankees' third baseman went 4 for 10 in Philadelphia, while driving in six runs.
The winning team has captured every game by at least two runs, with the only underdog victory coming in the series opener by Cliff Lee and the Phillies, 6-1.
Chris David of VegasInsider.com says that bettors shouldn't rush to the window betting the 'over' in Game 6, "We're well aware that the oddsmakers create totals based on pitching matchups first and Game 6 features a pair of veterans that can be suspect at times. However, seeing the number listed at 9 ½ runs at some Las Vegas outfits make you wonder if the books are gearing for an 'over' rush?"
David notes that the two veterans taking the hill could be gearing up for an 'under' play, "Sure, Pettitte is pitching on short rest and the Phillies' bullpen has been shaky but Pedro is a gamer. All three games in Philadelphia went 'over' as the two teams combined for 38 runs. While the bats have been hot, gamblers following the Yankees should know that the 'under' has cashed in all seven postseason games this year in the Bronx."
VI capper Brian Edwards says the Yankees' strategy to put out three pitchers on short rest may backfire, "You wonder if Joe Girardi has out-foxed himself with Pettitte set to pitch on three days' rest. Burnett rarely throws on short rest and we saw him get rocked Monday in Game 5. Now Pettitte will try the same thing for the first time since the 2003 World Series. Meanwhile, Pedro is on regular rest and has pitched outstanding in the playoffs. Even in his Game 2 loss, Pedro threw well enough to win, but Burnett was just better on that night."
The Phillies still have work to do, but it's not out of the realm of possibility for Philadelphia to grab this one, according to Edwards, "For the side in this game, I think you have to stay away from the Yankees at a 'chalky' -200. If gamblers insist on taking the Yankees, I think you go the run-line route for even money. As for me, I'm on the total strong and might get a very small taste of Philly for a plus-180 return."
The Yankees are listed as a $2.00 home favorite, with the total set at 9 (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00 on the 'over').
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
