Editor's note: Dr. Ed Meyer joins the VegasInsider.com stable of handicappers this fall as a pro basketball handicapper. Be sure to view the Professor's daily picks and analysis. Click to win!
Part 1 | Part 2
In football, the quarterback is the key player. In baseball, the pitcher is the key player. In basketball ALL the players are important as there are only five on the court at a time and each one contributes significantly to the outcome of the game.
Often an NBA player has a poor performance that costs his team a win. For example, a point guard may have committed five or more turnovers, a leading scorer may have shot less than 33% from the field or scored fewer than ten points. It is not unreasonable that a key player will respond to a poor performance in their next game or, perhaps, they next time that they face that opponent. Knowing how key players respond to extremes in performance will make you a more knowledgeable and, hence, a more profitable NBA handicapper.
Here we present thirty examples of player-based trends that we have found -- one for each team. There are hundreds more in our database and searching through them is part of my daily handicapping routine.
BOBCATS -- The Bobcats are 0-9 ATS (-4.6 ppg) since December 21, 2004 after a win in which Gerald Wallace had more turnovers than assists.
BUCKS -- The Bucks are 0-9 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since April 14, 2004 with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Michael Redd was NOT the Bucks' high scorer.
BULLS -- The Bulls are 0-7 ATS (-6.7 ppg) since December 06, 2003 at home with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Kirk Hinrich took fewer than 10 shots.
CAVALIERS -- The Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS (-16.2 ppg) since February 18, 2004 at home after a loss in which Lebron James shot worse than 33% from the field.
CELTICS -- The Celtics are 10-0 ATS (+8.5 ppg) since April 05, 2005 after a loss in which Paul Pierce had at least 5 turnovers.
CLIPPERS -- The Clippers are 10-0 ATS (+5.3 ppg) since March 17, 2004 at home after a win in which Chris Kaman shot worse than 33% from the field.
GRIZZLIES -- The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS (+12.3 ppg) since April 09, 2004 on the road after a win at home in which Mike Miller scored fewer than 10 points.
HAWKS -- The Hawks are 0-9 ATS (-6.3 ppg) since November 29, 2005 after a loss in which Zaza Pachulia had a double double.
HEAT -- The Heat are 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since January 24, 2005 on the road after a win at home in which Shaquille O'Neal played fewer than 30 minutes.
HORNETS -- The Hornets are 10-0 ATS (+7.8 ppg) since February 13, 2005 on the road when seeking same-season revenge for a loss in which David West was NOT the Hornets' high scorer.
JAZZ -- The Jazz are 8-0 ATS (+8.9 ppg) since January 05, 2004 as a dog when seeking same-season revenge for a road loss in which Andrei Kirilenko had more turnovers than assists.
KINGS -- The Kings are 0-10 ATS (-6.7 ppg) since March 12, 2004 on the road after a win at home in which Mike Bibby shot better than 50% from the arc.
KNICKS -- The Knicks are 0-9 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since January 17, 2005 at home after two losses in which Stephon Marbury played more than 40 minutes in each.
LAKERS -- The Lakers are 9-0 ATS (+8.9 ppg) since December 28, 2004 at home after a loss in which Lamar Odom had a double double. Interestingly, the Lakers are 0-8 ATS (-5.1 ppg) since November 29, 2002 after a loss on the road in which Kobe Bryant had a double double.
MAGIC -- The Magic are 9-0 ATS (+10.3 ppg) since November 28, 2005 after two home games in which Dwight Howard had a double double in each.
MAVERICKS -- The Mavericks are 9-0 ATS (+10.3 ppg) since December 12, 2003 as a road dog when seeking revenge for a loss in which Josh Howard was not the Mavericks' high scorer.
NETS -- The Nets are 0-8 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since February 22, 2006 when Richard Jefferson played more than 40 minutes the last two games.
NUGGETS -- The Nuggets are 10-0 ATS (+10.3 ppg) since January 21, 2005 at home with at least a day of rest after a win in which Carmelo Anthony was NOT the Nuggets' high scorer.
PACERS -- The Pacers are 8-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since January 24, 2003 when Jermaine O'Neal played more than 40 minutes the last two.
PISTONS -- The Pistons are 9-0 ATS (7.9 ppg) since March 16, 2005 with at least a day of rest after a win in which Tayshaun Prince was the Pistons' high scorer.
RAPTORS -- The Raptors are 0-8 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since January 07, 2004 after a win in which Chris Bosh scored fewer than 10 points.
ROCKETS -- The Rockets are 0-9 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since December 14, 2002 at home after a loss on the road in which Yao Ming had a double double.
SIXERS -- The Seventysixers are 12-0 ATS (+9.3 ppg) since April 06, 2004 with at least a day of rest after a loss at home in which Samuel Dalembert had more rebounds than points.
SPURS -- The Spurs are 8-0 ATS (+7.1 ppg) since January 29, 2003 with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Tim Duncan shot worse than 33% from the field.
SUNS -- The Suns are 7-0 ATS (+13.6 ppg) since December 29, 2002 after a win in which Shawn Marion played fewer than 30 minutes.
SONICS -- The Supersonics are 9-0 ATS (+6.7 ppg) since March 03, 2006 with at least a day of rest after a win in which Ray Allen was the Supersonics' high scorer.
TIMBERWOLVES -- The Timberwolves are 0-8 ATS (-12.4 ppg) since November 23, 2004 at home after two wins in which Kevin Garnett had a double double in each.
TRAILBLAZERS -- The Trailblazers are 0-11 ATS (-13.6 ppg) since January 04, 2006 on the road after a loss in which Zach Randolph was the Trailblazers' high scorer.
WARRIORS -- The Warriors are 11-0 ATS (+8.2 ppg) since February 18, 2004 at home with at least a day of rest after a win in which Jason Richardson was NOT the Warriors' high scorer.
WIZARDS -- The Wizards are 10-0 ATS (+7.8 ppg) since December 21, 2005 with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Gilbert Arenas played more than 45 minutes.
In the second part of this article, we'll present OU trends that are based on the recent performance of key players. Watch for it!
