Tip-off Point
October 27, 2009 By Kevin Rogers VegasInsider.com
A new NBA season is here, and for the exception of some veterans changing addresses, many things should remain the same. The top three teams in the Eastern Conference look to once again be Boston, Orlando, and Cleveland. However, the order of the threesome is in question, as far as the postseason goes. In the West, the defending champion Lakers are the team to beat, but the question is who can come out and knock off Kobe Bryant and the Purple and Gold?
The Celtics, Magic, and Cavs all brought in proven veteran players to bolster their case to win the East. Boston added Rasheed Wallace from Detroit as an insurance policy to Kevin Garnett, who missed the final three months of last season with a knee injury. The Magic lost Hedo Turkoglu to free agency, but picked up central Florida native Vince Carter to add more scoring punch.
One of the biggest questions heading into the season is if this is the final year for LeBron James in Cleveland. The reigning MVP received help in the middle with the acquisition of Shaquille O'Neal from Phoenix. The Cavs were ousted by the Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals, as now Cleveland has an answer to Dwight Howard in the middle, if the two teams meet again in the postseason.
The Lakers picked up the talented, yet misunderstood Ron Artest from the Rockets to help bring another championship to Los Angeles. The Lakers will have two big hurdles if they want to hoist the trophy again this season. First, will Artest implode and ruin L.A.'s chemistry? Secondly, will the Lakers get bored during the regular season, as they know they're in a division in which L.A. can sleepwalk to a title.
There are plenty of potential teams looking to knock off Phil Jackson's squad, including Denver, San Antonio, Dallas, and Portland. The Nuggets have been knocked out of the playoffs each of the last two seasons by the Lakers, but proved that Chauncey Billups was the piece Denver needed to go far. The Spurs added Richard Jefferson from the Bucks, as San Antonio's window for another championship is closing slowly. The Mavs picked up Shawn Marion from Toronto, as Dallas will try to reclaim the glory of the 2006 season (even though the Mavs blew a 2-0 lead in the Finals against the Heat).
Our panel of experts at VI weighed in on who will represent each conference, as Chris David feels the Blazers will break on through in the West. "The Trail Blazers might be a year or two away but if these other top contenders in the West don't blend together, a ticket to the Finals could come quicker," David says.
The Blazers have a nice young nucleus which can carry them far, according to David, "Brandon Roy will be an All-Star for years to come and LaMarcus Aldridge has been a proven commodity in the paint. What makes me like the Blazers even more is depth, and they have it at every position now." David feels the addition of veteran Andre Miller may be the missing piece, "Last year, the point guard spot was a weakness but the addition of Miller will greatly improve their play on both ends of the court. Portland is one of the few teams that can play fast or slow, plus they have size in the middle and gunners on the outside."
Back in the East, Brian Edwards sees Cleveland going to the Finals. "I like the Cavs over the Magic because I think the addition of Shaq changes Cleveland's personality. LeBron now has a physical presence that has his back at both ends. Shaq is certainly past his prime, but he can still dominate the boards, set picks, and finish strong."
I agree with Edwards on the Cavs representing the Eastern Conference. There aren't many more excuses Cleveland can use now with the acquisition of Shaq. The Cavs improved the point guard position last year by picking up Mo Williams, but LeBron still needs more of a supporting cast if Cleveland wants to win it all. I'm not too sure that LeBron will stay in Cleveland for the long run, so this could be the last stand for the Cavs to make the Finals.
David believes the Celtics will rebound this season, and make it back to the Finals. "One thing you cannot handicap in any sport is injuries and that's what hampered Boston's chances of repeating last year. The Celtics starting five is arguably the best in the league despite the age issues of KG, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. Rajon Rondo is a stud and a future All-Star while Kendrick Perkins knows his role in the middle," says David.
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Boston has much more to offer than just the Big Three, according to David, "Along with Wallace, Doc Rivers has the luxury of bringing in experienced players in Eddie House, Big Baby Davis, Tony Allen, and the newly acquired Marquis Daniels. There will be a lot of egos on this team but the veterans know that the window for another championship is closing in Beantown. Look for another banner getting raised in Boston this season."
I'm staying on the 'chalk' route for the West winner, and siding with the Lakers. This team is too automatic to pass up, and I don't believe that Artest will disrupt the chemistry that has been built over the last few years.
Edwards points to the Spurs as the team that can claim the Western Conference crown this season. "I absolutely love the offseason moves made by the Spurs, who picked up a fourth scorer in Jefferson. Also, they acquired a savvy veteran that's hungry to win a title in Antonio McDyess. Last but not least, they scored big in the draft when DeJuan Blair inexplicably dropped out of the first round due to concerns about his knees. Blair will be a big-time factor as a rookie, as he's a terror on the glass at both ends of the floor. Give me San Antonio plus-900 to win it all."
As far as the panel's best 'over' and 'under' win totals go, there are plenty of differing opinions here. David buys into the Sixers as a solid 'over' play at 39 ½. "I like new coach Eddie Jordan and his philosophy of pushing the ball, which is a great move considering the number of athletes on the Sixers. That strategy won't work in the playoffs but we're just expecting Philadelphia to win 40 games, and we don't see why that won't happen," says David.
The Sixers did lose Miller to Portland, but David believes the talent in Philadelphia is still plentiful, "Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala are big-time players, plus the roster is filled with some raw talent, especially Thaddeus Young. The one move I loved in the offseason was getting Jason Kapono, a much-needed sharp shooter for the 76ers offense. Even if they slump at times, this 'over' seems very valuable."
Even though the Bucks will not likely make the playoffs, I am sold on Milwaukee finishing 'over' the posted total of 27 ½. As long as Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut stay healthy, the Bucks can pick up 20 victories at the Bradley Center. All we need for an 'over' is eight or nine wins away from Milwaukee, which is very doable.
Edwards is bullish on the Hawks to achieve an 'over' on the 44 ½ win total. Edwards says several offseason pick-ups will help Atlanta have another successful season, "The Hawks kept their entire nucleus and added two nice pieces in Jamal Crawford and Jeff Teague, which will compliment a strong starting five."
David doesn't believe the Lakers will break the 62 ½ win ledger posted in Vegas. "The Lakers had a target on their backs last year and they performed well and winning 63 games is a tough feat for any club. They won 65 last year and I believe the West got better as a whole. Phil Jackson's team will still be a contender but he's only busted this number once during his tenure with the Lakers. I just don't see it happening twice in a row," says David.
The number for the Blazers is pretty high in my estimation at 53 ½. Portland and Denver will compete for the Northwest Division crown, but the Blazers will win no more than 50 games this season.
Below is the panel's predictions for the 2009-10 NBA season.
