Saturday's Best Bet
August 11, 2017
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Saturday NFL Best Bet
Oakland Raiders vs. Arizona Cardinals
Week 1 of the NFL preseason is nearing a close and for football bettors everywhere it means we are one more week closer to games actually meaning something.
However, there is still plenty of money to be made on preseason betting odds, especially when certain situations pop up that favor one team over the other. This week's Oakland/Arizona definitely fits that latter category, as this is the 2nd preseason game for Arizona after losing in the HOF game a week ago.
BetDSI.eu Odds: Arizona (-3); Total set at 39.5
Although many of Arizona's starters sat on the sidelines in street clothes during last weeks' 20-18 loss in the HOF game, the fact that this is the second preseason tilt for the rest of the squad is a good thing from a betting perspective. Guys like backup QB Blaine Gabbert – who was 11-for-14 – have already established some sort of rhythm, and when they get on the field this week for the Cardinals after the starters get their one or two series' things could start to turn Arizona's way.
From 2013 through 2015 (there was no HOF game in 2016), NFL teams that got that extra game early on in the preseason ended up going 4-2 ATS (4-2 O/U) during “Week 1” of the preseason the following week. So while the level of play in the HOF game may never be spectacular, it does suggest that the extra time on the field helps those two teams against the spread the next week.
Arizona fits that bill in this one, and with VegasInsider.com's betting percentages showing plenty of support (75%+) for the underdogs from Oakland, there may actually be quite a bit of value in laying the points here.
All of that Oakland loves stems in large part to the high expectations many have for the Raiders this year, but a common mistake bettors make during the preseason is projecting regular season expectations on those same teams in games that mean next to nothing. Oakland should be one of those teams that we see get plenty of support from bettors all year long, but it looks like many are seeing the three points they are getting with Oakland here and jumping all over it.
Public underdogs are typically bankroll killers in NFL betting (regular season or not), and with history on the side of the Cardinals with this being their second game, those of you considering grabbing the points with Oakland as many already have may want to reconsider.
With Arizona's starters likely to see some time on the field, and possibly even backup QB Drew Stanton getting significant reps before we see Gabbert again, the depth advantage has to lie with the Cardinals in this spot.
With that being the case and Arizona being a favorite that's getting next to nothing in terms of betting support, I've got to lay the points here and hopefully it will add a bit more money to my bankroll for those regular season bets on the Raiders that many have been clamouring for all summer long.
Odds per - BetDSI.eu
Best Bet: Arizona (-3)
14-1 Streak, 5-0 G-Plays, 8-1 Totals
14-3 L2 Sun., 8-2 G-Plays, +2,243
8-0 L8 G-Plays, 12-6 L18 Picks
8-1 Sun., 8-3 G-Plays, 67% +1,550
7-0 L2 Sundays, 17-5 L6 Sundays
10-3 Sun., 28-11 Run, 6-0 Totals
7 Wins in a Row, 4-1 L5 G-Plays
16-7 L5 Sundays, 62% +1,169 TY
11-4 Week 6, 30-13 L43 Totals
4-0 L2 Sundays, 9-2 L11 Picks
18-7 Record Last 4 Sundays
12-6 L3 Sun, 20-11 Run, +898 TY
12-6 L18 G-Plays, 7-2 L5 Sundays
7-3 L2 Sundays, +815 Overall
4-1 Sun., 12-7 L19, 4-2 G-Plays
4-1 L5 G-Plays, 7-2 L9 Totals
3-0 Sunday, 8-4 Over/Unders TY
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