UNDER Teams to Watch
October 4, 2017
The 3 Best Under Bets in the NFL
Let’s get one thing straight: betting the UNDER isn’t fun. It’s a dare play. You want a boring game. You end up excited about punts and fair catches. It’s a weird place to be. But you’re a gambler right? What do you care if a game is pulse pounding? If you’re driven by the need to win money, then this is the perfect handicapping tip sheet for you.
The ideal UNDER team is typically built around a mediocre offence, paired with a strong scoring defence. There are also nominal plays when a defence is so chaotic and disruptive that it interrupts the game flow to the point that opponents lose their way. Below are teams that fit that bill.
To be clear, betting the UNDER at BetOnline.ag is not for the feint of heart. If you’re daring enough to walk on the side of the brave, then follow these three surprising UNDER plays.
And for reference, I have no idea why I have to capitalize OVER, UNDER and TOTAL. Maybe It’s because people don’t pay enough attention to these lines so we need to YELL ABOUT IT.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (0-4 O/U)
Off Rank: 18th (22.5 points)
Def Rank: 2nd (14.8 points against)
Next Game: vs. Jacksonville (Pit -8.5 / 43.5)
The Steelers are hilariously ranked 2nd in overall scoring defence because they got to play DeShone Kizer, Case Keenum, Mike Glennon and Joe Flacco in that order. But the glaring perception on them is that they can score in absolute boat loads, and from what we’ve seen from their offense so far, that isn’t happening.
Pittsburgh used to be an automatic OVER play because this offense was brilliant, and the opportunistic defence was great at scoring. That’s not the case anymore. So the Steelers remain an opponent-dependent UNDER take, but the TOTAL on their games ends up inflated because of flawed public perception. Take full advantage, especially in Week 5 when they play a sputtering Jaguars offence.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (1-3 O/U)
Off Rank: 16th (22.8 points)
Def Rank: 13th (19.8 points against)
Next Game: vs. Baltimore (Oak -2.5 / 40.0)
Yup, they were scoring that many points when Derek Carr was at the helm. It’s only going to get significantly worse now that E.J. Manuel is their quarterback. The good news? We saw it on Sunday when they manhandled Denver defensively. Khalil Mack and company are purely disruptive.
The only game they pushed the OVER is when they victimized an overwhelmed Jets secondary with long bombs. That part of their game plan is now dead. You can pinch their TOTALS tightly until Carr comes back in six weeks. There’s too much pride in their defense to let their division chances slip away.
BUFFALO BILLS (1-3 O/U)
Off Rank: 23rd (18.2 points)
Def Rank: 1st (13.5 points against)
Next Game: at Cincinnati (Cin -3.0 / 38.5)
If there was ever a perfect UNDER team, this is it. The Bills have clearly been the most ferocious defence in the NFL this year. You could see it in the way Devonta Freeman kept getting murdered in the backfield on Sunday. These guys are just out for blood. And their offence is slow, putrid and built on big plays that rarely happen. It’s the perfect storm.
The oddsmakers are so nervous around the Bills that they gave them a low hanging 40.0 point TOTAL against Denver. They only crested that mark by two points, winning 26-16. As far as savvy plays go, the Bills in the UNDER feels like a virtual lock considering how grinding their playing style is on both sides of the ball.
Just understand that you’re going to be holding your breath the entire time when you bet a Bills UNDER this year. It’s part of the price you pay to lay this kind of action.
Check out all the Week 5 NFL Game Lines this weekend at BetOnline.ag!
14-1 Streak, 5-0 G-Plays, 8-1 Totals
14-3 L2 Sun., 8-2 G-Plays, +2,243
8-0 L8 G-Plays, 12-6 L18 Picks
8-1 Sun., 8-3 G-Plays, 67% +1,550
7-0 L2 Sundays, 17-5 L6 Sundays
10-3 Sun., 28-11 Run, 6-0 Totals
7 Wins in a Row, 4-1 L5 G-Plays
16-7 L5 Sundays, 62% +1,169 TY
11-4 Week 6, 30-13 L43 Totals
4-0 L2 Sundays, 9-2 L11 Picks
18-7 Record Last 4 Sundays
12-6 L3 Sun, 20-11 Run, +898 TY
12-6 L18 G-Plays, 7-2 L5 Sundays
7-3 L2 Sundays, +815 Overall
4-1 Sun., 12-7 L19, 4-2 G-Plays
4-1 L5 G-Plays, 7-2 L9 Totals
3-0 Sunday, 8-4 Over/Unders TY
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