Betting Recap - Week 10
November 14, 2017
By Daniel Dobish
Be sure to follow VegasInsider.com on Twitter @TwitVI for the latest NFL Football betting updates and trends. Daniel E. Dobish can be followed on Twitter at danieledobish.
NCAAFB Week 11 Recap
Against the Spread
Against the Spread
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Packers (+5, ML +190) at Bears, 23-16
49ers (+3, ML +140) vs. Giants, 31-21
The largest favorite to cover
Rams (-13) vs. Texans, 33-7
Lions (-10) vs. Browns, 38-24
Panthers (-8) vs. Dolphins, 45-21
Patriots (-7) at Patriots, 41-16
-- The New Orleans Saints rolled up an impressive 47-10 road win against the Buffalo Bills, posting six rushing touchdowns in the process. The Saints started out 0-2 SU/ATS, but they're a perfect 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS during their current seven-game winning streak. Next up is a home date with the Washington Redskins and a high-anticipated battle on the road against the Los Angeles Rams. Not many believed, even a few weeks ago, that a former NFC West battle between the Rams and Saints would have playoff implications.
Break Up the Niners
-- The San Francisco 49ers didn't look like a winless team in their 31-21 victory against the New York Giants, earning the straight-up win and cover as short 'dogs at home. The team traded for QB Jimmy Garoppolo to be their quarterback of the future, but rookie QB C.J. Beathard accounted for three total touchdowns and there is no hurry to thrust Garoppolo in before it is time. The 49ers did enter the game with a total of just 30 points over their past three games, 10 points in each outing. The 'over' has cashed in four of their past six outings thanks mostly to the fact they have given up 20 or more points in six straight games.
-- Sunday Night Football hit the 'over' for the second consecutive week, as the New England Patriots mowed down the Denver Broncos, 41-16. Over bettors were helped by several miscues on special teams which led to plenty of early points, including a muffed punt deep in Denver territory which gave the Patriots favorable field position, and a kickoff return for touchdown midway through the first quarter. The 'over' was a frequent occurrence for the Pats early on, going 4-0 through their first four games, but they tightened up on defense and posted four straight 'under' results until SNF.
-- The game with the lowest total on the board -- Green Bay-Chicago (37.5) ended up inching over thanks to a flurry of scoring in the final quarter. The teams had combined for just 19 points through the first three quarters, and 'under' bettors were on the right side. However, there were 10 total points in the final 5:29 to push the total over the finish line for 'over' bettors. This game was aided by five field goals of 40-plus yards, a 37-yard touchdown run and a 46-yard touchdown reception to go over. The second-lowest game on the board, Miami-Carolina (38.5) was taken care of by the home team alone.
-- The Dallas-Atlanta (49) game offered the highest total on the board, but the 'under' was never in doubt. The Cowboys offense looked disjointed as they adjusted to life without RB Ezekiel Elliott, serving the first of a six-game suspension, and while understudy RB Alfred Morris did a good job, it was the offensive line that did the Cowboys in. OT Tyron Smith was inactive, so DE Adrian Clayborn had a historically good day taking advantage of the patchwork line. He recorded six sacks, second-most in a single game in NFL history, and a new Falcons franchise record. Watch those Dallas 'under' results in future weeks.
-- The 'Over' finished 2-1 in the three primetime games of Week 11, and the 'over' is 20-12 (62.5%) through the first 32 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's Miami Dolphins-Carolina Panthers game still on tap. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.
-- Colts QB Jacoby Brissett (concussion) reported concussion-like symptoms after Sunday's game, the result of a helmet-to-helmet hit that wasn't even flagged. He'll have two weeks to recover with the team on a bye in Week 11.
-- Falcons RB Devonta Freeman (concussion) was forced out of Sunday's game against the Cowboys, entering the NFL's concussion protocol.
-- Packers RB Aaron Jones (knee) suffered a medial collateral ligament sprain in Sunday's game, and he'll have an MRI on Monday to determine how much time he will miss. RB Ty Montgomery (ribs) also checked out early and did not return.
-- Texans WR Will Fuller (ribs) sustained an injury to his ribs in the first half and he was unable to return to the game.
-- The Eagles and Cowboys will hook up in an important NFC East battle on Sunday Night Football. The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven SNF games, and the 'over' is 2-0 in the past two. The Eagles opened as three-point favorites and the total is up to 48 as of early Monday morning. In this series, the Cowboys have won just once in the past four home games against the Eagles, and they're 2-5 ATS in their past seven at home against Philadelphia. Over the past two seasons both games at AT&T Stadium in Arlington have been decided in overtime.
-- For the second consecutive weekend the NFL schedule features just two divisional matchups.
-- Lions and Bears will do battle in Chicago on Sunday. Detroit has had their way with seven straight-up wins over the past eight meetings, and the Lions are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings overall including 2-0 ATS at Soldier Field. The 'under' has connected in three straght in this series, too.
7-0 L7, 11-2 L13 NFL Streak
4-0 LW, 13-5 Totals, 25-11 L7 Sun.
7-2 Run, 24-11 L7 Sundays
6-0 Guarantees, 4-1 Playoffs
9-3 Playoffs, 5-1 L6 Totals
7-1 Playoff Picks, 7-2 L9 G-Plays
6-0 L6 G-Plays, 5-2 Playoffs
12-3 L15 G-Plays, 12-4 L16 Picks
2-0 Sunday, 6-0 G-Play Run
4-0 L2 Sundays, 28-10 G-Play Run
7-2 L9 Picks, 6-1 L7 Totals
9-1 L5 Sun, 14-5 Run, 21-5 GPlays
9-4 L13 G-Plays, +1,845 Picks TY
5-0 Totals, 11-3 G-Plays, 9-4 Picks
9-2 L11 G-Plays, 64% +1,105 TY
2-0 Sunday, 6-1 L7 Guarantees
3-1 L2 Sat, 5-2 L3 Sun, 8-1 G-Plays
6-0 L6 Guarantees, 10-4 L14 Picks
2-0 Saturday, 11-4 L15 G-Plays
10-5, +756 Postseason Record
2-0 Sun, 3-1 L2 Sat, 12-3 G-Plays
4-2 LW, 8-3 L11 Guarantees
4-1 L2 Sundays, 5-0 L5 G-Plays
7-1 L8 G-Plays, 23-13 L36 Picks
6-2 L8 Picks, 12-4 L16 Totals
4-1 L5 Picks, 4-0 L4 Totals
3-0 Guarantees, 3-1 Last Week
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