BUY – Green Bay Packers

The Pack is back! Green Bay has been playing very well over the last month for the most part and their upcoming schedule looks to be quite favorable over the next few weeks. I’m going to “buy” this team over the short term and possibly the rest of the year depending on how they respond over the next few weeks.

The Packers were obviously at the top of their game in last week’s 37-3 thrashing of division rival Chicago. However, a closer look reveals that the Green & Gold have actually played very well in three of their last four games all against teams that currently have .500 or better records. Their record during that stretch is 2-2 but they were very close to being 4-0 against some very formidable competition. The four game stretch began at home vs. Indianapolis, a game in which the Packers dominated winning 34-14. They followed that up with a great performance at Tennessee giving the Titans their biggest “scare” of the year taking them to overtime before losing 19-16. The Wisconsinites out gained the mighty Titans in that game and had many opportunities to pull out a win and give Tennessee their first loss of the season. After that it was a missed field goal at the buzzer in Minnesota that would have given them a win. The Pack rounded out that four game streak with a blasting of the Bears last Sunday to move into a tie for first place in the NFC North with Chicago and Minnesota.

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The Green Bay defense which has been scrutinized this year has come up big over the last month. They have held three of their last four opponents to less than 302 total yards and less than 20 points. Their only “off” game during that stretch was at Minnesota with Adrian Peterson who has been running wild as of late. Down the stretch last season the GB running game really kicked in with Ryan Grant at the helm. A similar trend in developing as Grant has averaged 98 YPG over his last six and we see the Pack relying on him even more as the weather worsens. This offense will be tough to defend.

Next up for Green Bay is a trip to Bourbon Street on Monday Night. After facing three consecutive top notch defenses in Tennessee, Minnesota and Chicago, the Packers offense gets a reprieve facing a New Orleans stop unit that ranks 24th in the NFL. The Saints have been out rushed in four straight games and that shouldn’t change on Monday night. GB tipped the rushing scale at 202 last Sunday against a Chicago defense that had only allowed 74 YPG on the ground entering the game. The Packers then play two straight home games against Carolina and Houston. The Panthers are a solid 8-2 but they have played most of their key games at home this year. Carolina has also struggled the last two weeks to beat the two worst teams in the NFL in Oakland and Detroit. The Panthers are my “sell” team this week and I expect them to struggle over the next few games. Houston comes to Lambeau the following week and while their offense can be dangerous, they can’t stop anyone allowing 21 points or more in every game but one this season.

I think the Packers are set to make a move and win the NFC North. The next few weeks provide a decent spread opportunity so let’s “buy” some Green & Gold stock.

SELL – Carolina Panthers

The Panthers sit a top the NFC South with a very good 8-2 record. However, I feel this team is vulnerable the next few weeks with two tough road games and a home game against a solid Tampa Bay team. I’ll put this team on the market and “sell” the Panthers in the short term.

Carolina is very quietly 8-2, however as I mentioned above in the Green Bay analysis, almost all of their tough games have come at home. Their two formidable road opponents (currently .500 or better) were Minnesota and Tampa Bay. The Cats were thrashed in both of those games losing by 24 @ Tampa and by 10 in the Metrodome. Every other team they have faced that currently has a .500 or better record have all come at home. Now they go to Atlanta (6-4) and to Green Bay (5-5) the next two weeks. Those two teams have a combined record of 7-3 at home this year and we should be getting some favorable lines due to the Panthers lofty record. Well we know that Atlanta is a 1.5 point chalk and Green Bay shouldn’t be much higher.

Those will be some tough stops for Carolina and they must play much better than they have the last few weeks to come out of Atlanta and Green Bay alive. The Cats have really had to put forth a big effort simply to beat Oakland and Detroit the last two weeks. Those are arguably the two worst teams in the NFL with a combined mark of 2-18 on the year. They flew across the country to Oakland two weeks ago and won 17-6, however it was still a one score game with under 2:00 minutes remaining. QB Jake Delhomme was putrid completing just 7 of his 27 pass attempts for only 72 yards. He also threw four picks in that one.

Last week, a winless Detroit team was within 2-points with less than 5:00 minutes remaining in the game before losing by 9. Delhomme was again inefficient throwing for just 98 yards. The Panther QB has completed only 56% of his passes this year and is in the bottom third of the NFL in passer rating. While Carolina’s rushing attack has been very good, they’ll need Delhomme to play much better to have a chance in the next few games.

The Panther defense has been solid this year allowing only 15 PPG. However, in their four road games they have given up nearly 20 PPG and that includes a game vs. Oakland who only scored six points and simply has trouble getting first downs. Carolina has been winning but has been out gained in four of their last five games which is somewhat of a red flag. The only team they out yarded during that stretch was 0-10 Detroit and that was only by 40 total yards. This Panther stock is about to plummet and I’m getting rid of it over the next few weeks.