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Nearly halfway through the NFL season, we are slowly figuring out which teams will play in January, while other clubs are just playing out the string. There is still plenty of excitement in the NFL Handicapping Challenge heading into Week 9, as I coming off a 3-2 weekend, my fifth winning week out of eight.
1) Bengals (+2 ½) vs. Ravens - 1:00 PM EST
There have been several instances this season in which I faded the Bengals in the challenge, but this week I'm backing Cincinnati.
Marvin Lewis' team is off the bye, after beating the Bears soundly, 45-10. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season, and 0-3 ATS as a favorite, so this is a good spot to back Cincinnati. Also, the Bengals beat the Ravens in Baltimore, 17-14, while holding John Harbaugh's club to 257 yards of offense.
The Ravens upset the previously unbeaten Broncos this past Sunday, 30-7, but are listed as a road favorite for the first time this season. Baltimore is just 2-8 ATS the last ten as road 'chalk,' while dropping three of the last four meetings in Cincinnati.
Final score: Bengals 20, Ravens 17
2) Cardinals (+2 ½) at Bears - 1:00 PM EST
A battle of 4-3 teams hook up at Soldier Field, as both clubs have an opportunity to solidify their spot in the postseason race. Granted, the Cardinals are in a better place since their division is easier to win than the Bears, but Arizona needs a bounce-back after getting blasted by Carolina.
The Cards are a perfect 3-0 on the road this season, including the Sunday Night victory at the Giants two weeks ago. Arizona is 7-4 ATS off a home loss since 2006, the same season the Cards gave away a 20-0 lead over the Bears on Monday Night in a crowning 24-23 loss.
The Bears are 3-0 at home, but their last two victories are against the Browns and Lions. Chicago hasn't been good after a SU win, going 7-18-2 ATS the last 27 games following a victory.
Final score: Cardinals 24, Bears 16
3) Colts (-8 ½) vs. Texans - 1:00 PM EST
The undefeated Colts escaped with their lives on Sunday, beating the feisty 49ers, 18-14, despite Peyton Manning not throwing a touchdown pass. The Texans, meanwhile, improved to 5-3, the best start in franchise history after knocking off the Bills.
Indianapolis is 7-0 lifetime against Houston at home, winning by an average margin of 17.4 ppg, including five victories by double-digits. The Texans still own one of the league's more average defenses, but were aided by a strong effort against Buffalo.
The Colts have done well off a SU win in which they don't cover, compiling a 9-1 ATS mark since 2007, as Indianapolis failed to cash tickets against San Francisco.
Final score: Colts 31, Texans 20
4) Titans (+3 ½) at 49ers - 4:15 PM EST
Not exactly saying that Tennessee is back after beating Jacksonville, but the Titans are in a good spot this week. Vince Young was an efficient 15 for 18 for 125 yards, but Chris Johnson led the way with 228 yards on the ground. The Titans take on a 49ers club that will be playing their third straight AFC South opponent, after falling at Houston and Indianapolis.
San Francisco fought hard to earn a push at Houston, rallying from a 21-0 deficit, only to lose 24-21. The Niners led the Colts at halftime last Sunday, but were shut out in the second half, dropping an 18-14 decision. This is a great opportunity for the Titans to pick up a cover, as Tennessee faces a passing offense that throws for 175 yards/game.
Final score: Titans 20, 49ers 16
5) Lions (+10 ½) at Seahawks - 4:15 PM EST
Let's not call this a stretch, since Detroit just lost to St. Louis at home, giving the Rams their first win of the season. However, the Seahawks are ripped apart on both sides of the ball, and they're laying double-digits?
The Lions have a long way to go even if they want to reach mediocrity, but Detroit is trying to put together continuity with young offensive weapons like Matthew Stafford, Kevin Smith, and Calvin Johnson.
Both of Seattle's wins have come via the shutout, 28-0 over the Rams, and 41-0 against Jacksonville. However, four of their losses are by double-digits, so it's been a blowout either way with Seattle. The Seahawks are a lousy ATS team and shouldn't be laying this kind of number, even against the Lions.
Final score: Seahawks 20, Lions 13
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
