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The betting shop’s long national nightmare is over! Two weeks ago, the sportsbooks suffered the single worst day they had ever seen with heavy favorites covering left and right. Last Sunday, the parlors were able to strike back a little with the “chalk” going 8-5 straight up, but only 5-8 against the spread.
This week we’ve got six teams on the board that are favored by at least nine-points. We’ve also six games where clubs are no higher than 4 ½-point favorites. Definitely a stark contrast between the quality of battles we’ll get to watch.
What’s even more surprising than the haves and have-nots in the NFL in terms of the spread this Sunday is stability. Only one game’s line moved more than one-point since the good folks at Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the line early in the week.
That one multi-point line that moved more than a point was between the Titans and 49ers. San Francisco was initially a six-point home favorite. But public perception of Tennessee’s win over the Jags has helped bring that spread down to its current line of four.
This recent spate of fairly sessile spreads made me wonder what the sportsbook would rather have: A lot of action on one side that fails to cover or have evenly spread money on both teams in a given game.
The sportsbook manager for betED, Randy Scott, helps us understand what the sportsbooks would rather have on a football Sunday. “Bookmaking is truly an art. Every book has it's different style of risk management. Some prefer to be virtually risk free by constantly adjusting their lines in an attempt to balance the action. And there are other books that look for quality one-sided decisions for a chance at a big return.”
“Most books start out by following the market numbers and monitor their incoming early action closely. The decision to move or not move a line is solely based on who is betting (wise guys) and the current market prices.” Scott concludes, “The art of bookmaking is in moving the lines in relation to the sharp bettors and market prices to maximize handle and create above theoretical returns with a favorable distribution of the action.”
One of those games with even action happens to be a big AFC North battle between the Ravens and Bengals. The Ravens won big last week against Denver 30-7 after three straight weeks of close defeats. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has come up with some good wins this year – including a 17-14 victory at Baltimore. Despite that road win over their rivals, the Bengals were initially 2 ½-point home pups.
“That's a very tricky line,” says Scott. “Expect that number to be adjusted. First criteria is; Over all Team strength (Power Rankings) then we use industry insight, then home field advantage is considered and finally it's the public perception that gets considered. Currently we have that game at Baltimore -2 (-120).”
Monday night’s scuffle between the Steelers and home standing Broncos is another close number for bettors to watch. Denver is listed as a three-point home underdog for this contest. That’s a little strange considering that the Broncos have only one loss on the books, which occurred last week and Pittsburgh isn’t nearly as strong as you’d think they should be.
Randy Scott says that the Broncos’ loss last week did affect this Monday’s line with Pittsburgh. So does the fact that Denver is 4-1 SU and ATS as a pup this season come into play for the oddsmakers? “Yes it does, but not heavily. They will still be underdogs but the line might be shortened because of their record,” explains Scott.
The plus side for gamblers is that you can take Denver on the money line for a plus-130 return (risk $100 to win $130). The sportsbooks make those shorter lines to offset the folks that just go and play the spread. “You will see money lines that don't seem to add up to the pointspread,” adds Scott. “That's because the players are heavy on the dog moneyline and heavy on the favorite pointspread.”
You can Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
